COLLEGE PREVIEW
Find out what’s in store for the college football season and Texas programs.
Let us cut to the chase — will Alabama repeat?
Short answer, no. Longer explanation: The Crimson Tide under the Benjamin Button of college football coaches, Nick Saban, have won six national titles since 2009, but only two have come in consecutive years (2011 and 2012).
That’s quite an “only,” of course, and 129 other FBS programs would happily accept that “only.” But the odds are against Alabama repeating (not exactly breaking news), especially considering Saban must replace most of his offense, and offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, the new coach at Texas.
Plenty of disgruntled Texans fans — these days a redundancy — will proclaim to Saban that Sarkisian’s replacement at offensive coordinator, Bill O’Brien, will automatically keep Alabama out of any serious title contention. (The O’Brien-Texans bits never grow old.)
Finally, the prediction here is that top-ranked Alabama slips up at No. 6 Texas A&M on Oct. 9, and Saban finally loses to one of his former assistants, in this case Jimbo Fisher. Saban enters the season 23-0 against his one-time understudies now running their own programs.
Will COVID-19 impact college football?
Not to the degree it did last year. After early hesitation among some programs, the vaccination rate among players has accelerated nearly across the board, based in part on leagues threatening forfeits for teams that are sidelined on Saturdays by multiple COVID cases.
Schools as of this weekend, too, are pressing forward with plans for full stadiums — or at least as many tickets as they can sell — while some are requiring proof of vaccinations or negative COVID tests for fan entry.
LSU last week became the first SEC school to do so, with university president William F. Tate IV citing “the current threat to our lives, our health, and to our medical systems due to COVID-19 overburdening our hospitals, and we must do our part to stop the spread.”
But loads of programs outside of LSU are counting on most fans to be vaccinated and figure trying to check vaccine cards or negative tests would create massive headaches at entry gates. It certainly will be something to keep an eye on this season, which starts en masse Saturday.
Will NIL affect play?
For the first time under new NCAA guidelines, college athletes can benefit financially from their names, images or likenesses (NIL), and that’s caused consternation among some “oldschool” fans who like their alleged amateur athletes to remain amateur. It shouldn’t cause any angst.
Most college football players are smart enough to realize their performances on Saturdays will directly impact their marketability — which might even result in elevated play for some athletes.
As Texas A&M running back Isaiah Spiller put it, “I’m keeping the main thing the main thing.”
Fisher said NIL “hasn’t been a distraction to the team at all” as it prepares for Saturday’s opener against Kent State. College football will still be college football, only the players now will have more accountants and a better understanding of tax laws. Or at least they better.
Is this the end of the SEC as we know it?
Or at least as we’ve known it the past decade. The bet here — although we urge you not to put money on it, because we might very well be wrong — is that Texas and Oklahoma are in the SEC by as early as 2022.
Certainly no later than 2023, even if the TV contracts are set to expire in 2025.
LSU and A&M have played their annual series on Thanksgiving or Thanksgiving weekend since 2013, and they’re scheduled to meet Nov. 27 this year in Baton Rouge, La. But should the Longhorns enter the SEC as soon as 2022, A&M and UT are expected to grab back their traditional Thanksgiving or Thanksgiving weekend landing spot.
So if you’re a fan of the Battle for the Sabine Canteen (a madeup moniker), enjoy Tigers vs. Aggies on Thanksgiving weekend while you can.
Will a new kid crash the CFP party?
Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State have ruled the roost since the College Football Playoff began after the 2014 regular season. The powerful trio has hogged 16 of the 28 slots over the previous seven seasons, and that doesn’t appear to be changing any time soon based on their consistent topnotch recruiting and annual durability.
So who could potentially crash the CFP party while the postseason is still four teams, and perhaps provide some fresh air and fresh faces to what’s become a bit of a stale scene come January?
Associated Press Top 25 voters are guessing No. 6 A&M, No. 7 Iowa State or No. 8 Cincinnati could make their first CFP appearance. Other potential newcomers include North Carolina under the irrepressible Mack Brown, Miami, Indiana and Iowa, at least according to the early AP rankings.
The SEC has four of the seven CFP titles, the ACC has two and the Big Ten has one. The Big 12 has never even made the title game. Speaking of …
What to make of Oklahoma?
The Sooners have made four appearances in the CFP and lost all four, including three by double digits. As mentioned, this might be OU’s final run through the Big 12, and naturally the Sooners’ road to the CFP will get bumpier in the SEC, especially as long as the playoff stays at four teams.
OU enters the season ranked No. 2 behind Alabama by the AP, its highest preseason ranking in a decade. Sooners coach Lincoln Riley vows none of that matters right now.
“Whatever they say in preseason, we all know it’s a bunch of garbage,” Riley said. “… Go look at preseason rankings through the years, and then go look at the postseason. It’s just a guess.”
This just in: Riley believes predictions are just guesses. He is correct in the sense that it’s no easy chore to predict the ultimate winner. Since the first AP preseason poll in 1950 — the AP poll itself started in October 1936 — a mere 11 teams picked to win it all actually did.
Alabama was the last to do so in 2017. Meantime, the Sooners return dynamic quarterback Spencer Rattler, who enters his redshirt sophomore season as the 2021 Heisman Trophy favorite and perhaps the top overall selection of the 2022 NFL draft.
The always-intriguing Sooners finished 9-2 last season, with a 55-20 hammering of Florida in the Cotton Bowl.
“It just feels different this year,” an eager Rattler said this summer. “It’s going to be a fun year.”
It will be especially fun for the Sooners faithful if OU continues getting its act together defensively, the side of the ball that has held it back down the stretch in recent seasons. Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch has worked wonders in his two seasons in Norman and likely will be a prominent head coaching candidate soon.
The Sooners were 29th in total defense last season, after they were 114th (114th!) in 2018, the season before Grinch’s arrival from Ohio State.
What’s the bottom line?
Look, the times are changing in college football, there’s no doubt about it — this is perhaps the most transformative time in the history of college athletics. But in the end, it’s still college football on fall Saturdays across the fruited plains, and that always will be a dazzling thing, no matter if your local quarterback is hawking gas station hot dogs or bitcoin or whatever.
And maybe, just maybe, NIL opportunities will cut down on the growing trend of players opting out of bowl games that have no impact on the national championship. Perhaps more players will stick it out with the idea of making a few extra dollars — or even thousands of dollars — around the holidays.
One of the beauties of college football is your favorite program isn’t picking up and moving cities if it doesn’t get a new stadium, at least one way in which the college game tops its NFL big brother. (Is it evident this old Oilers fan is still a bit bitter?).
For its share of warts — with maybe its biggest the antiquated NCAA — college football is still a fun game with fun storylines throughout the season. Just ask Rattler.
Here’s to another year — ideally one minus any forfeits.