Houston Chronicle Sunday

Report: Climate change will mean hotter, wetter days ahead in Texas

- By Emily Foxhall

Weather in 15 years in Texas looks something like this: Days are warmer. Temperatur­es more often pass 100 degrees. Rain likely falls with greater intensity.

That’s according to a new report from Texas State Climatolog­ist John Nielsen-Gammon, who used both historical trends and climate models to predict what residents here might expect.

“Nobody knows which specific weather and climate events will befall Texas over the next couple of decades,” Nielsen-Gammon wrote. “But a wide variety of informatio­n can be used to estimate the risks of certain types of weather and climate events over that period.”

The report was commission­ed by Texas 2036, a group that aims to use data to shape policy. It offers a sobering look at a state that may get increasing­ly harder to live and work in.

By 2036, Nielsen-Gammon predicted the following for Texas:

• The average temperatur­e will be 1.8 degrees warmer, compared to 1991 to 2020;

• The number of 100-degree days will nearly double, compared to 2001 to 2020;

• Extreme rainfall intensity will increase by about 2 to 3 percent, compared to 2001 to 2020;

• Urban flooding will increase by about 10 to 15 percent, compared to what was expected for 2000 to 2018.Human-generated greenhouse gas emissions — mainly from the burning of fossil fuels — are considered the biggest driver of climate change.

And climate change already has altered Texas weather, the report shows. Average temperatur­es have risen since the 1970s, increasing by 0.61 degrees per decade since 1975. The number of triple-digit days since then has roughly doubled.

In recent years, temperatur­es got hotter in every season in all parts of the state. (Last year tied 2016 for the hottest on record.)

Extreme rainfall also increased, though it varied by region. Overall, the median intensity since 1960 increased by about 7 percent. Those hard rains are familiar for Houstonian­s, who live in a city that stood out in the report as a “hot spot” for urban flooding, most notably during Hurricane Harvey in 2017.

More than 60 percent of the metropolit­an gauges where flooding was increasing in the state were in Harris County, according to the report.

All of this, of course, has consequenc­es: warmer days mean heightened health risks for people who work outdoors. It could also make Texas a less desirable place to live, Nielsen-Gammon said.

“Because climate change is an ongoing process, that warming trend is expected to continue,” he said, adding, “The heat is going to become more unrelentin­g.”

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