Biden’s vaccine mandates might backfire with the public

Henry Olsen says most consumers won’t like it if millions of holdouts call the president’s bluff.

President Joe Biden’s job approval ratings have been sinking for months as voters increasingly see him as out of touch with their priorities and values. The coming clash over vaccine mandates might be another area where the president has misread the public temperament.

His proposed mandates might look politically shrewd on the surface. Americans are tired of COVID-19 restrictions and want to get back to normal. Many see the unvaccinated as the primary obstacle to that goal. Reports of breakthrough cases among the fully vaccinated and fear that another, more dangerous variant might emerge combine to make vaccine mandates appear to be just the final, logical step in ending the pandemic.

But polls do not show overwhelming support for Biden’s approach. The most recent Economist-YouGov poll reports that only 52 percent of registered voters back Biden’s mandates, while 43 percent oppose them. That support is drawn almost entirely from Democrats, as Republicans overwhelmingly oppose the mandates and independent voters break 44 percent in favor and 48 percent against. A Georgetown University-Battleground poll finds an even closer breakdown, with 51 percent in favor of private companies mandating their employees to be vaccinated and 45 percent opposed. Both margins give Biden little room for error if things start to go wrong.

The news that many employees are choosing to quit or risk being fired rather than submit to the mandates could be the development that shifts public opinion. Nurses, police officers and others are already quitting their positions instead of getting the shots, and vaccination deadlines are fast approaching in a number of crucial fields. As many as 12,000 members of the Air Force are defying the military’s mandate to be fully vaccinated by next week, putting them potentially at risk of courtmartial and dishonorable discharge. That could compromise the national defense as the service lacks enough pilots or technicians to keep our planes aloft. How will public opinion react if that happens?

Mass firings or suspensions could directly affect ordinary Americans’ lives, too. New York City’s police, firefighters and sanitation workers have been protesting the city’s vaccine mandate, which takes effect Friday. As many as 10,000 police officers might be unvaccinated and at risk of being suspended or fired. If that happens and crime spikes as a result, it’s doubtful that New Yorkers will take it in stride as a cost of combating the coronavirus.

Already snarled supply lines could get even worse if these mandates kick in across the transportation and shipping industries. It won’t take many people to walk off the job or be fired to delay deliveries of food, gas and other goods. How many Americans want to wait in a line for gas because there weren’t enough truckers available to deliver fuel? How many want to see food shortages because 5 or 10 percent of meatpackers refused to be vaccinated and were taken off the job? It’s easy to be for something that places a burden on others. But human nature suggests opinions will change rapidly when people have to share the burden in ways they don’t like.

Mass resistance would force a confrontation Biden should not want to have. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that roughly 80 percent of Americans 18 years or older have received at least one vaccine dose. Even if Biden’s mandate cuts the number of unvaccinated people in half, that still would leave millions of workers who care more about their individual freedom than their job. Don’t be surprised if those die-hards become politically organized martyrs.

Biden has a habit of talking big but walking small. That might be what happens with the proposed mandates if it becomes clear that millions of people will call Biden’s bluff.

But if the president instead stands his ground and ratchets up pressure on vaccine holdouts, the chaos that may ensue might just make those popular vaccine mandates a political liability.