Youngkin’s win in Virginia started with Afghanistan debacle

Marc Thiessen says that’s when voters first noticed Biden’s incompetence and it’s gotten worse from there.

WASHINGTON — Who says foreign policy doesn’t matter at the polls?

When we look back at the issues that powered Glenn Youngkin’s upset victory in the Virginia governor’s race, education will be front and center.

But the turning point was Afghanistan.

Let’s be clear: Virginia voters did not cast their ballots on Afghanistan. Exit polls show the top issues on their minds were the economy, education, taxes and the coronavirus pandemic. Foreign policy did not make the list — which is not surprising in a governor’s race.

But nearly half of Virginia voters reported that one reason for their vote was to send a message for or against President Joe Biden, and 28 percent said they were casting their ballot to express opposition to the president. The intensity of Virginians’ disapproval of Biden is stunning: 54 percent said they disapprove of Biden’s performance in office, with 46 percent saying they “strongly” disapprove (only 8 percent “somewhat” disapprove). In an election decided by just two points, that disapproval proved decisive.

The collapse in Biden’s approval began with his disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. On Aug. 14 — the day before Kabul fell — Biden enjoyed a solid 50 percent national approval in the RealClearPolitics average. A few days earlier, a Hill-HarrisX Poll found Biden’s approval at 55 percent, with strong majorities supporting him on the issues: 55 percent approved of his handling of the economy; 54 percent approved of the job he was doing fighting terrorism; and 58 percent said he would do a good job running the government.

But after his Afghanistan debacle, the floor fell out from under the president. On Election Day, his approval in the RealClearPolitics average was underwater, at 43 percent to 51 percent. A pre-election Quinnipiac poll showed majorities disapproved of his performance not just on foreign policy but also on every single issue tested: the economy, taxes, immigration, his job as commander in chief, even his handling of the pandemic, which had been his strong suit.

Worst of all, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll a week before Election Day found that just 37 percent of Americans believe Biden is competent and effective, while 50 percent say he is not. And only 37 percent believe he is able to handle a crisis while 47 percent say he cannot. Handling crises is pretty much a president’s job description.

Approval ratings rise and fall, but once voters decide you are incompetent, it’s extremely difficult to reverse that impression. And Biden’s perception of incompetence began in Afghanistan. His shameful decision to leave hundreds of American citizens and thousands of Afghan allies behind; his catastrophic choice to put the security of U.S. troops in the hands of the Taliban which led to the deaths of 13 U.S. service members; and his insistence that it was all an “extraordinary success” has done lasting, perhaps irreversible damage to Americans’ impression of him.

And that impression has only been confirmed by the serial displays of incompetence that followed: The images of thousands of illegal migrants camped under a Texas bridge in Del Rio, which brought his self-inflicted crisis along the southern border into focus; his begging OPEC — a foreign oil cartel — to produce more oil because gas prices had risen $1.25 on his watch; his inability to address the supply chain crisis; and his failure to pass his bipartisan infrastructure bill or reach agreement with fellow Democrats on his signature social spending bill — even though his party controls the White House and both houses in Congress. A Fox News Voter analysis found that 76 percent of Virginia voters said the negotiations in Washington over his governing agenda were an important factor in their vote — and Youngkin won those voters by 54 percent to 46 percent margin.

And on the issue that drove Youngkin’s victory — education — voters saw the Biden administration’s incompetence on display as well. First, they watched Biden’s education secretary, Miguel Cardona, echo Terry McAuliffe’s gaffe and refuse to acknowledge that parents are the “primary stakeholders” in their children’s education. Exit polls showed Virginia voters disagreed by a margin of 84 percent to 13 percent. And then they watched as Biden’s Justice Department — in an incredible display of political incompetence and federal overreach — tried to weaponize the FBI to intimidate parents exercising their constitutional right to express concerns about their children’s education at school board meetings.

Youngkin is the governor-elect of Virginia because of Biden’s incompetence. The 2022 midterms will likely be a referendum on the president’s ineptitude, as well. And the moment Americans decided that Biden was incompetent was when they watched his calamitous, shameful withdrawal from Afghanistan.