Top Republican on foreign affairs panel talks Russia, China
Rep. Mike McCaul., RAustin, is in his ninth term in Congress, where he has earned a reputation as a staunchly conservative pragmatist. McCaul is ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and a former chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security. From his Washington-area residence, McCaul spoke over a video call on Dec. 3.
Q: You’ve been highly critical of President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan. Why?
A: We’ve lost eyes and ears on Russia, China and Iran. So we’ve gone dark in that region, and (our withdrawal) also projected weakness. And when you do that, you invite aggression, as you’ll see throughout history, going back to Chamberlain and Hitler (prior to World War II).
So I think this withdrawal has made (President Vladimir) Putin more provocative. And now you’ve got 100,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, with many more being dispatched from Moscow. … The threat is there and if we don’t provide deterrence here, just like when Russia went in Crimea, he’s going to go in. They are going to go into Ukraine.
Ukraine has always been regarded as the breadbasket of Russia. It’s the prize. Putin acts like he wants to restore the old Soviet empire. So that threatens the Baltic states as well. This will be the largest invasion of a country since World War II, if it happens, and I worry, just given the briefings I’ve had, that it is going to happen.
I know the administration’s talking about sanctions, and I welcome that. But I think NATO has to have a presence, you know, on the ground, so that Putin knows that you can’t do this without NATO and our allies responding to it.
Q: You’ve been talking up news that Samsung plans to invest $17 billion in Taylor, outside of Austin, where it plans to build a giant plant to manufacture semiconductors. Why is this so important?
A: So it’s actually an interesting story. During the prior administration, the national security adviser, Robert O’Brien, who I am pretty good friends with, and I were having this discussion about supply chain problems and the problems with advanced semiconductor chips in Taiwan and South Korea were getting compromised by China. These are advanced chips that are in our most advanced weapon systems, and well, they are in your phones, too. And so they are really like the brains behind everything we use, and so it’s really a critical asset.
I had further discussions with (former) Secretary (of State Mike) Pompeo, and then Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. Where we ended up in our thinking was to pull this critical supply chain, either into the United States or into one of our allied countries in a region that’s not vulnerable to being compromised by Communist China.
So the idea is to create manufacturing jobs in the United States and protect our national security at the same time. So this has been very well received. We got the language authorizing the new grant program into the National Defense Authorization bill. Sen. ( John) Cornyn introduced the companion in
the Senate, and now we’re looking at (legislation to create) the tax incentives. The grant program is important to help incentivize these companies to either expand or locate in the United States.
Everybody feels very strongly that the tax incentives will pass this year, and you’re already seeing great investment here in the United States, like Samsung. That’s just north of Austin for $17 billion. And that’s just the start — investments are going to grow exponentially over time.
It’s very cost intensive to build one of these things. That’s why, because it is a national security concern, we believe we really have to incentivize them to do this, either here, or with some of our allies.
I know there’s a lot of acrimony up here in Washington. But this is one of those kind of rare moments where you see both sides of the aisle coming together. We had a meeting in the Oval Office, with eight members of Congress, with the president, with the vice president all in agreement.
I like to get things done, not just go on YouTube and get attention by saying crazy stuff. That’s just not my style.
Q: Tell me more about your concerns on China.
A: Taiwan has always been in their sights. But now they’re getting very provocative … and establishing artificial islands in the South China Sea. If we don’t provide the deterrence now, they will definitely, in my judgment, just like with Hong Kong, move on them. That would have devastating consequences.
Q: Is there something in particular in the months since the Afghanistan withdrawal that you’re pointing to that shows a significant change in China’s behavior — not just in their rhetoric?
A: The flights over Taiwan airspace have increased dramatically since August. … Then there’s the firing of the hypersonic weapon, which is very significant, and the ability to have their missile orbit the
Earth, and then land with precision. … This missile is really built on the backbone of American technology, that either we’ve given it to them, or they’ve stolen it, or we’ve sold it to them. That’s something we’re gonna have to take a look at. We have got to stop selling them the technology that they’re going to put into advanced weapon systems like the hypersonic. We don’t have a hypersonic weapon that can deliver a nuclear payload. I got a very high-level classified briefing on this, and it’s very worrisome because they can hit the homeland with this. Our missile defense system cannot stop it because it flies five times the speed of sound and zigzags. It’s very hard to detect. So think about that with Taiwan now. If they see us wanting to get involved, they almost have a checkmate on us to say, you know, we got this hypersonic, we can hit your homeland and you can’t stop it. So they have leverage over us.
Q: You’ve spoken about this threat as one more reason to create a new supply chain away from China’s influence.
A: We’re looking at rare earth minerals. Through their Belt and Road initiative, they take rare earth minerals out of Latin America and Africa and bring them to China in the Xinjiang province, where they commit genocide and have slave labor with the Uighur Muslims.
I think it’d be really smart for an Elon Musk — and I plan to sit down with him — to work with Africa and particularly Latin America to get these rare earth minerals. That would help with the migration issue. Let’s set up a manufacturing plant in the Western Hemisphere, in Latin America.
There’s a moral issue here, and just logistically, it’s closer to the United States in this hemisphere.
Q: That could help build incentives for people in Guatemala or Honduras to stay home rather than migrate north?
A: I spoke to the Guatemalan ambassador and he said, “I don’t want aid, I want trade.” But they really need foreign investment
Q: If China were to invade Taiwan, would the U.S. be obligated to go to war?
A: No, we have made promises to Taiwan, but we are not bound by a treaty to go to war. We have a security defense agreement with Australia that we would be bound by. Australia is very nervous right now about what’s happening. That’s why we did (a deal) with respect to nuclear submarines, to build those in Australia. That’s gonna take time. But we are bound by that security agreement we have with Australia. So if Australia responded and asked us to join them, we would be obligated by that.
Q: Biden got hammered for offending France by supporting the submarine deal with Australia. Did he make the right decision?
A: Yeah, I got a call from the National Security Council and they told me about the plan. I was very supportive, because this is exactly what we need. You know, the French submarine is not as advanced as the one that we’re talking about. I will say that I did meet with our French counterparts. And they were mad not so much that we made this decision. It was the way it was made. They are our oldest ally, and they felt they were completely blown off.
Q: You’ve raised the concern that Iran is running out of the clock as it continues its nuclear program. But how much should we expect them to trust the negotiations when President (Donald) Trump pulled the U.S. out of the nuclear accord?
A: At the end of day, Iran is going to have to make a decision: Is their economy more important than being a nuclear power? We are willing to lift the sanctions, but they need to give up their nuclear program or make it more civilian-based, energy program. If they would stop enriching uranium, we will lift all the sanctions tomorrow. They have a decision make.