Americans waiting on travel plans to Europe
Just as the travel industry was seeking to climb out of a two-year depression, Russia’s assault on Ukraine has scrambled schedules and given Americans pause as they consider international vacations.
The extent to which travelers will feel the effects of the war depends on where they’re going, though experts say the rising price of oil will likely affect all airline ticket prices, even on domestic routes.
For Americans with international plans, the world map, which recently seemed to be expanding with the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in many countries, has shrunk anew. Operators have largely scrapped travel in Russia for the rest of the year, which greatly affects Baltic cruise itineraries where the marquee port of call was St. Petersburg.
All of this comes at the time of year when many Americans plan their summer vacations. Some are hesitating. In a recent survey of about 350 U.S. travelers on the effects of the war, the market research company MMGY Global found that 47 percent are waiting to see how things pan out in Ukraine before making plans for Europe. The conflict leapfrogged COVID as a factor influencing decision-making, with twice as many respondents citing concern about the war spreading beyond Ukraine as those who fear the pandemic.
So far, travel companies are not seeing mass cancellations as travelers, who may have been conditioned to remain flexible by the pandemic, are sticking to their resolve. Nearly 65 percent of U.S. adults surveyed by TheVacationer.com, a travel strategy website, said they would accept higher prices, longer transit times or another deterrent in order to travel this year.
“We’re not seeing a change in behavior for now from our American travelers,” said Sarah Casewit, a senior travel curator with Origin, a membership-based travel planning service that has seen a rise in European bookings in recent weeks.
Whatever inconveniences travelers experience is, of course, nothing when compared with the suffering inflicted on Ukrainians. Many travelers want to support Europeans who have been hoping for a robust summer season, but they do not want to complicate humanitarian efforts to help war refugees.
Given the unpredictability of the war, travelers will need to remain flexible as flight operations, cruises and tours adjust to the conflict.
No commercial carriers from the United States fly to Russia, and those with code-share and interline agreements with Russian carriers, including Delta and American, have cut them.
But the Federal Aviation Administration’s prohibition on flying over Ukraine, Belarus and much of Russia requires some routes to make costly diversions. For commercial flights departing from the U.S., these routes are largely limited to India, which only reopened to tourists in mid-November. United Airlines has temporarily suspended service between San Francisco and Delhi and between Newark and Mumbai, though it is continuing service to Delhi from Chicago and Newark.
Rerouting to avoid Russian airspace on Asia flights by flying lower latitude routes over Alaska adds to the cost of operating those flights, said Robert Mann, an airline consultant, who estimated an extra hour of flight time can add up to $12,000.
Those aren’t the only additional expenses that will be passed on through higher ticket prices. The rising cost of oil, expected to rise even more after the Biden administration banned Russian oil imports, is contributing to higher airfares.
But for now, interest in Europe remains high among flyers. The airfare app Hopper found prices on Europe-bound flights from the U.S. have risen 16 percent since mid-February, from $660 to $763 round trip, which it attributes to post-omicron travel enthusiasm and the usual seasonal cycle of rising prices.
Cruise lines were counting on 2022 as their comeback year. But those that operate in and around Russia are quickly changing their routes.
From boutique lines such as Silversea to bigship specialists such as Carnival, cruise lines have canceled Russian port visits. Princess Cruise
Lines is modifying 24 itineraries initially scheduled to visit St. Petersburg.
“Some spend three full days there, longer than any other city in Europe,” said Samuel Spencer, the general manager of Ocean & River Cruises Travel, an agency based in Calgary, Canada, who describes the city’s attractions, such as the State Hermitage Museum and Peterhof Palace, as unmatched. “It’s a major blow.”
Nonetheless, lines are working to secure substitute ports. Oceania Cruises, which is also canceling Russian stops in Murmansk, Archangel, Vladivostok and the Solovetsky Islands, plans to add additional overnights in Copenhagen and Stockholm in place of St. Petersburg.
Outside of Russia and Ukraine, where Viking canceled its river sailings, river cruise companies largely remain committed to their European schedules.
“As we have yet to set sail for the 2022 cruise season, we have no current plans to cancel or adjust Eastern European cruises at this time,” Pam Hoffee, the managing director of Avalon Waterways, which does not operate in Russia, said in a statement.
As with pandemic-inspired travel cancellations, domestic destinations may benefit.