What do the Texans have to do to upset the Chargers again?
Alexander: Often times, the NFL is about matchups. That is, unless you’re the 2021 Jacksonville Jaguars. The Texans aren’t good, but they aren’t that bad. And this seems to be a good matchup for them.
The Chargers have the worst rushing offense in the league, but one of the better passing offenses. Meanwhile, the Texans have been good against the pass. They’ve got four interceptions, which is tied for sixth in the league, and opponents are completing only 55.1 percent of their passes against them. That’s second in the league. Their 10 sacks are good enough for fifth in the league.
This game is tailor-made for them. I say all that to say, they need to stop the run and play their game. Forcing turnovers will help them.
Kubena: The Texans beat the Chargers in 2019 with superior quarterback play and a hellacious pass rush. Both teams were hit hard by COVID-19 outbreaks last year when Rex Burkhead rushed for a career-high 149 yards and two touchdowns against a depleted Chargers defense. This game obviously has different circumstances.
Mainly, the Texans just need to demonstrate they have a pulse in the fourth quarter. They haven’t scored a point yet in the final frame through three games. They’ve led in the third quarter in every game. That’s not just an indictment on quarterback Davis Mills, who’s 12-of-25 passing for 124 yards and an interception in the fourth quarter. That’s also on the offensive line that’s surrendered four sacks in that span, too. It’s on a run game that almost disappears with the game on the line. Dameon Pierce only has five carries for 9 yards in the fourth quarter. Since he’s been the only player to demonstrate he’s a consistent offensive threat, that minimal usage is almost inexcusable. The Texans aren’t beating anyone that way, much less upsetting playoff contenders.
The Chargers are pretty banged up. Do the Texans have any advantages at certain positions now?
Kubena: A much-improved Texans secondary has a considerable advantage now that wide receiver Keenan Allen has been downgraded to “out” with a hamstring injury. Allen has averaged 150 targets in each of the past five seasons, in all of which he was named to the Pro Bowl. Justin Herbert will miss his top target, and the Texans’ coverage now can direct most of its attention to Mike Williams. Cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. will likely be tasked with covering Williams. The No. 3 overall pick has gained experience after his back-and-forth battle with Denver’s Courtland Sutton. If the Chargers had two stellar pass-catchers available, they’d have given the Texans secondary a challenge they haven’t yet seen. This matchup is certainly more manageable.
Alexander: I think so. The Chargers haven’t given up many sacks this season — only three. But tackle Rashawn Slater, out for the season, is going to be a big loss, which will give the Texans opportunities to get after Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert.
Defensive end Jerry Hughes, who is second in the league with four sacks, has been phenomenal this season. He’s a difference-maker. And if teams begin to focus on him, that opens the door for Jonathan Greenard. I also like what Maliek Collins and Rasheem Green have done. They do need to close running holes and stay in their gaps on the defensive line. But I don’t think that will be a problem this game. The Chargers may pass for most of it.
The Chargers’ defensive line could also be reeling from the loss of Joey Bosa. However, I think edge rusher Khalil Mack is still a problem.
Is this the game Mills breaks out?
Alexander: The Texans better hope so. He’s been struggling the past three games, especially in the fourth quarter, where the Texans have been outscored 30-0. All-Pro safety Derwin James is someone who scares me. But the Chargers haven’t been great on defense. They’ve given up seven passing touchdowns, tied for fifth-worst in the league, and have only three interceptions.
Bosa is a major piece to this defense too. Perhaps Dameon Pierce has a big game to take some of the pressure off Mills. I don’t know if Mills will have a breakout game. But after last week’s two-interception performance against the Bears, he has no choice but to be better. I do expect him to take care of the football. Offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton has to do a better job of getting Brandin Cooks involved, whatever that is. He has a 45 percent catch percentage. And Mills has to find him. Lovie Smith says Mills is getting better. Well, we’ll see.
Kubena: The Chargers’ pass defense surrendered a total of 497 yards and five touchdowns in its two losses against Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) and Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs). Elite quarterbacks have found ways to exploit Los Angeles. Bosa’s absence makes the opportunity even more favorable for Mills to prove he can at the very least be a capable starter. Bosa and Mack combined for 4 ½ sacks in a Week 1 win over the Raiders and Derek Carr, who threw two touchdowns and three interceptions while under immense backfield pressure.
Houston’s strength is its run game. There isn’t anything Mills and the Texans receiving corps has done yet to suggest Hamilton should instead lean on them. A “breakout” game for Mills could just be converting on third downs (he’s 14-of-30 passing for 147 yards and an interception on all third downs) and performing in goal-to-go situations (1-of-4 for 4 yards and a touchdown).
That’s all I think the Texans are asking him to do right now.