Key races in bid for control of Senate

With the Senate at 5050 for each party, Republican control is only one seat away. But this election season has been full of surprises. For much of the campaign, Democrats have appeared ready to grab a Republican seat in Pennsylvania, meaning Republicans would need to flip two Democratic seats to earn a majority.

But recent fumbles by Republican candidates in New Hampshire, Georgia and Arizona have made finding those two winnable races more difficult. Here are the seats where each party is vulnerable, based on the Cook Political Report Race Ratings. Georgia: Earlier this year, Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., had been considered one of the Senate’s most vulnerable Democrats as he took on Herschel Walker, a scandalprone Republican backed by former President Donald Trump. Then came the accusation that Walker, a staunch opponent of abortion, paid for an exgirlfriend’s abortion, and the race turned upside down. Cook Political Report still rates the contest a toss-up, but the new allegations have given Warnock an edge and put Walker on the defensive. Arizona: A Democratic seat in Arizona may have at one point been vulnerable. But the enduring popularity of the incumbent, Mark Kelly, and the faltering campaign of his challenger, Blake Masters, may put it out of Rehad publican reach.

Nevada: The race in Nevada might be the Republicans’ best chance to take a seat from the Democrats. Catherine Cortez Masto, the incumbent, is not well established in a state known for its transient population and fickle voters, especially in midterm elections. But her Republican challenger, Adam Laxalt, the state’s former attorney general, lost his run for governor in 2018 and has yet to open a clear lead. Pennsylvania: The Democrats’ best chance to pick up a Republican seat is in Pennsylvania, where Sen. Patrick Toomey is retiring. Celebrity physician Dr. Mehmet Oz won the Republican nomination, helped by Trump’s endorsement, but he did not have the love of the Republican base. His opponent, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, had a life-threatening stroke that gave Oz an opening. The evident effects of the stroke, and the Republican’s portrayals of Fetterman as a criminal-coddling liberal, have narrowed the race. Wisconsin: Democrats high hopes of unseating the Republican senator from Wisconsin, Ron Johnson, six years ago and were stunned by his relatively easy re-election. Since then, Johnson has become the Senate’s leading peddler of conspiracy theories and COVID-19 misinformation, yet he is hanging tough against Wisconsin’s lieutenant governor, Mandela Barnes, who comes from the Democrats’ liberal wing and has proved vulnerable to attack, especially on crime.

North Carolina: A sleeper race for the Senate is also the sleepiest. Rep. Ted Budd, R-N.C., who is backed by Trump, has tried to lie low and ride the national current to the seat of Richard Burr, a Republican who is retiring. Cheri Beasley, a former chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, is running as a judge above the political fray. North Carolina is a state that has broken Democrats’ hearts, and it could well do so again. But Budd and Beasley are consistently polling at a tie.