THE LOWDOWN

It’s four weeks into the 2022 season, and the Texans (0-3-1) still have a win streak at stake. They travel to play the Jaguars (2-2), a team they’ve beaten eight consecutive times, at noon Sunday at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Fla. The Chronicle’s Brooks Kubena and Jonathan M. Alexander discuss the major questions and keys to this game: Can Dameon Pierce repeat last week’s production?

Alexander: It’ll be difficult, but it won’t be impossible. The Jaguars allow only 93.8 yards per game on the ground, which is eighth-best in the league. They held All-Pro running back Jonathan Taylor to 54 yards in their 24-0 victory over the Colts in Week 2. But they’ve also had a slip-up here or there. Last week, Eagles running back Miles Sanders ran for 134 yards on 27 carries.

If the Texans can win up front — which is easier said than done — take care of the football and establish the run, then they can have success. If they don’t take care of the football, they may be forced to abandon the run. But I doubt they replicate what happened last week against the Chargers. The 75-yard run was the result of great blocking from the Texans, great vision from Pierce and bad run defense from the Chargers. The Jags are a little more disciplined than that.

Kubena: Houston’s offense is definitely more one-sided than Philadelphia’s. The Eagles were able to gash the Jaguars with zone-read runs in a tandem with Miles Sanders and dualthreat quarterback Jalen Hurts, who also rushed for 38 yards and a touchdown. Unless the Texans are going to unleash Davis Mills (or Jeff Driskel) in a zone-read scheme, I think the Jaguars are much more prepared to shut down a more conventional rushing attack. That Jacksonville front seven has become a dangerous unit. First overall pick Travon Walker has two tackles for loss, a sack and an interception coming off the edge, and the Jaguars gave Pro Bowl linebacker Josh Allen significant upgrades in the position group with firstround pick Devin Lloyd and free-agent signee Foyesade Oluokun, who led the NFL in tackles last season with the Falcons. Dameon Pierce faces his toughest front since he gained 33 yards on 11 carries against Indianapolis. There’ll be more pressure on Mills to provide production in the passing game.

Who gets more turnovers, the Texans or Jaguars?

Kubena: The Jaguars. And it could be by a significant margin. Lawrence threw his two interceptions this season while under heavy defensive pressure. The first was a third-and-11 heave in the final minutes of Jacksonville’s loss to the Commanders. The other was a backfoot toss in the red zone last week against the Eagles. The Texans’ pass rush cooled off last Sunday against the Chargers when Justin Herbert comfortably carved up the defense and slid for Houston’s only sack of the game. Defensive end Mario Addison could provide a spark if activated against the Jaguars, but Jonathan Greenard didn’t practice much with an ankle injury. As stated earlier, the Texans’ run game will also be challenged. Davis Mills will have to take more chances in the passing game, which increases even more risk for a quarterback who’s thrown two interceptions in each of his last two games.

Alexander: Neither. I think it will be even. I think both teams will turn it over once. Davis Mills will throw an interception at some point during the game. And the Texans will get a pick of their own on Lawrence, too. I’ll say Derek Stingley Jr. gets his first career interception, with the “bruised arm” and all. Statistically, both teams have done a fairly good job of taking care of the football and forcing turnovers. The Jaguars have been a little better at forcing turnovers. They have forced nine in four games. The turnover battle will be the key in Sunday’s game. Mills’ first interception last week against the Chargers put them in a big hole early in the game. They know that can’t happen again. How much playing time does Christian Harris get?

Alexander: Based on Lovie Smith’s comments earlier this week, and (linebackers coach) Miles Smith’s comments Thursday, it doesn’t seem like he’d play much, if at all. I wouldn’t be surprised if they waited to add him to the roster until after the open date.

The Texans’ linebackers are struggling, but the thing we must remember is Harris hasn’t practiced since the first few days of training camp in August. He’s a rookie and has a long way to go. You can’t just plug him in and expect him to be great all of a sudden. When they do use him, I expect them to use him in specific packages and ramp him up until he does earn that starting spot.

Kubena: Sure, no one’s expecting Harris to be “great” instantly. It’d be foolish to think the third-round rookie, who’d been sidelined with a hamstring injury since Aug. 6, would supplant starters after just two practices. But this isn’t a zerosum situation. It’s clear Lovie Smith and Miles Smith want to put Harris in the best possible situation to succeed. Christian Kirksey has played every single defensive snap this season. Kamu Grugier-Hill has missed just eight snaps. The Texans often use three-linebacker defensive packages, and I’d imagine that’s the perfect scenario to ease Harris into the scheme with a light load he can handle. If he’s indeed fully healthy, it’d be beneficial to give the rookie crucial in-game experience to review over the off week. Who knows? Maybe Harris thrives enough Sunday to surprise the coaching staff. Adjustments always happen on the fly, and no starter is safe from being benched if they struggle consistently enough.

Is Derek Stingley Jr.’s arm injury much of a concern?

Kubena: Contact is the concern. Stingley proved he’s willing and able to play through pain by returning to the game twice against the Chargers. He’s been wearing a brace over his left arm in practice this week, which Lovie Smith said is protecting what the head coach has called a “bruise.” I’m interested to see how receivers play him. Can he still press? Can he jam? Luck is involved, too.

Does his left arm take a direct hit from a helmet? Does it get caught between bashing bodies? All of that is a concern. But Stingley’s vital enough a player for the Texans to accept the risk.

Alexander: In some aspects, yes. He had to be taken out of the game multiple times last week. So there’s the risk.

But I think he’ll be able to play regardless, and the off week will certainly help him, too. For now, it’s not. But it’s definitely something to keep an eye out for. Stingley means a lot to the Texans’ defense. He’s been tasked with guarding the opposing teams’ top wide receiver. And he’s played well in that role. Losing him would be a huge loss.