Will Smith be one and done?
The Texans came off their open date with hopes to build off their first win of the season.
But the Raiders had other plans, handing the Texans a 38-20 loss.
Naturally, many of the questions in this week’s mailbag pertained to the future and the draft. I’m here to answer them.
Let’s get to your questions:
Q: Have Mills’ struggles (outside of week 7) kept the staff from getting a good look at the pass catching talent? If it continues do you think we see a change for Allen or someone else so Nico, Jordan, etc get a fair evaluation?
— Paullywall A: No. If you ask the coaching staff about Davis Mills, they’ll tell you they’ve actually seen growth in the second-year quarterback, especially over the past three games.
And each game, he’s gotten better.
He’s made some tough thirddown throws recently, that he struggled to make in the first few weeks. His two fourth-quarter conversions on third down — one to Nico Collins and the other to Jordan Akins — helped win the game against the Jaguars on Oct. 9.
The Texans were 9-of-15 on third downs against the Raiders.
Mills’ Week 7 performance is part of the evaluation, so you can’t ignore that. Players like Collins have taken on a bigger role for the Texans, too. Before the injury he suffered against the Raiders, Collins had 65 yards receiving against Jacksonville and 82 yards receiving against the Los Angeles Chargers. It was a matter of getting Collins more involved.
But I think Lovie Smith’s comments Monday said it all.
“We have some issues we need to clean up, but the quarterback position is not it,” he said.
The only chance Mills gets benched is if his production drops off dramatically or he suffers an injury. The Texans are being patient with Mills.
Q: Likelihood of Lovie being one and done? And will Mills be replaced in the 2023 draft?
— Blake Marshall A: I think at this point, there’s little likelihood that Smith is a one-and-done coach. For a general manager or owner to part ways with a coach after one year, they’d have to have little to no faith in that coach. And I don’t get that sense from this organization.
This week’s loss was their worst — by 18 points. All their other games have been one or two scores.
The Texans are hurt by the fact that they don’t have enough talent and depth to truly compete with the top teams in the NFL. You can blame their salary cap situation. They’re also a young team, starting five rookies. This is a long process for the Texans. They know it now, and they knew it going into this season.
Now if the Texans start getting blown out regularly, and Smith begins to lose the locker room, that could change. But that hasn’t happened, and I don’t see that happening.
As far as Mills being replaced, it’s still early to tell.
We’re not halfway through the season yet.
I think Mills made a case last week showing why he should be considered for the long-term role. He made the throws you need to see from franchise-type quarterbacks. A lot can change between now and then though. For instance, their draft position, other needs, where players fall on the draft board.
The Texans also desperately need a pass rusher and someone who can help stop the run.
Even if they do draft a quarterback, I think the Texans would keep Mills and maybe even start him until his future replacement was ready. But again, it’s way too early.
Q: Why isn’t Dare (Ogunbowale) getting playing time, and evaluation of Christian Harris playing time? — Austin A: I asked the same question, but I haven’t really gotten a clear answer.
What I can tell you is, Ogunbowale will likely see some time on offense moving forward. He had five catches for 54 yards on that one drive. He was making players miss. He looked like a serviceable option, especially in the passing game.
Even Smith admitted that Ogunbowale got the coaching staff ’s attention. I expect him to see more touches.
It was a little bit of a struggle for Christian Harris in his first game, but he’s a rookie. He’s still learning, and he was going up against a talented defense. A couple of times he got matched up with All-Pro receiver Davante Adams. That’s tough for a rookie linebacker.
It’s tough to properly evaluate Harris, because he missed all of training camp.
He only had a week of practice before his first game. So it’s going to take some time. Give him three or four more games.
Q: Assuming we win as many games as last year, how does Lovie Smith earn an extra season when David Culley didn’t? I know it would look horrible to dump him, but is that enough to keep him?
— Martin Vela A: I think David Culley and Lovie Smith are much different cases.
I think last year, you had players and staff who kind of lost faith in what Culley was doing. They were getting blown in games — by 30 and 40 points. I think that’s the biggest difference. That hasn’t happened this season, which is why Smith will likely have another year.
It’s also not like Smith is working with the same weapons the Bills have.
Smith isn’t going anywhere after this year.
Q: Assuming the Texans don’t need a quarterback, what positions do they fill with their two number one picks next year?
— Michael Hoelscher A: As you can see from the Dolphins, Chiefs and Eagles, you can never have enough top wide receivers. They make quarterbacks better. Jalen Hurts’ and Tua Tagovailoa’s games have taken huge steps forward as a result of adding top wide receivers.
And the Texans’ pass rush has struggled recently. They have only two sacks in their last three games.
Starting defensive end Jerry Hughes is playing well this year, but he’s only on the field for just over 50 percent of the team’s snaps. And he’s 34. They’ve got to have a succession play.
And stopping the run has been a major issue. A gamechanging defensive end can help with that.
Q: With two high first round picks, won’t there be a lot of pressure to get a highly rated quarterback with one pick no matter how good Mills finishes up this year?
— Michael Hoelscher A: Yes. I think general managers dream and think about getting that franchise quarterback until they finally have one.
If they fall in love with one of these players, and he’s there by the time they pick, I expect they’d take a quarterback.
You don’t pass up on franchise quarterbacks, and you keep trying until you find one.
Q: Do the Texans believe that wide receiver (John) Metchie will be able to play by next year?
— Michael Hoelscher A: Yes, they do.
He’s been in the locker room multiple times and has been in high spirits talking with his teammates. They are optimistic about Metchie and his cancer diagnosis moving forward and expect him to return next year if everything continues to go well.