THE LOWDOWN
How concerned should we be about Derek Stingley Jr.’s hamstring injury, and how much does his absence influence the defense?
The Houston Texans host the Washington Commanders at NRG Stadium on Sunday, hoping to snap a four-game losing streak. The Chronicle’s Brooks Kubena and Jonathan M. Alexander discuss the biggest topics ahead of Sunday’s game:
Kubena: The Texans spent a few days deliberating whether to fully rule out Stingley for the weekend before ultimately scratching him from the game Friday. He suffered the hamstring injury during practice, and that the Texans were considering whether he’d be prepared to play in time against the Commanders is in itself promising. But hamstring injuries can be unpredictable. Rookie linebacker Christian Harris missed all of the preseason and the first five games of the regular season with a hamstring injury, and Tavierre Thomas is in his second game back from a quad injury. This will be an injury the Texans continue to monitor each day, and Stingley will now have four more days to rest up before the team practices again Wednesday. The Texans’ secondary is significantly better when Stingley is in the lineup. There’s a reason the franchise made him the No. 3 overall pick in this year’s draft. He hasn’t surrendered a touchdown yet in any of his targets this season, according to Pro Football Focus, and the Commanders and a trio of receivers that cornerbacks coach Dino Vasso said is the best they’ve seen yet have a clear point of attack.
There will be a drop-off with Desmond King filling in for Stingley opposite Steven Nelson, but I don’t think the secondary will be as disastrous as last season. Nelson has been a formidable addition, and King played well at times last season in his first year as an outside cornerback.
Alexander: The Texans should be extremely concerned because, like you said, Brooks, hamstrings can be tricky. A small injury can become a serious one if he reaggravates it. Stingley is the future, and they should take precautions as they’ve have. There’s no doubt Stingley’s absence will be felt. He’s their best cover corner. Opponents have a 79.8 percent passer rating when targeting him. He hasn’t allowed a single touchdown, including against Davante Adams, Courtland Sutton, Michael Pittman, A.J. Brown and other top receivers.
But it’s also not like the Texans are starved for talent. Having Tavierre Thomas back healthy now helps them. Desmond King, who has been playing well this season, can play outside corner. And Thomas can play the slot. The Texans should be able to hold their own. Making sure Stingley is healthy moving forward and doesn’t risk further injury to the hamstring is far more important.
Who makes an impact quickest for the Texans, Amari Rodgers or Eno Benjamin?
Kubena: Here’s a pretty clear stat that shows my answer. Dameon Pierce has 165 carries this season. Rex Burkhead has 24 and Dare Ogunbowale has one. The Texans very much needed a dependable backup running back, and they may have nabbed one in Eno Benjamin. He’s a downhill runner who’s averaging 4.3 yards per carry this year, and he’s caught 30 passes for 226 yards in two seasons with the Cardinals. He’s had more success as a pass-catcher, which Pierce is still working on. Lovie Smith made it clear that they’re not looking for a 1A-1B situation.
Pierce is still Houston’s bell cow. But Benjamin can be an immediate complement in a backfield that needed another effective running back to fully equip Pep Hamilton’s runoriented scheme. Amari Rodgers didn’t arrive until late in the week for the Texans, and it’s not as easy to see his fit on this team. The Texans already have an established kick returner in Tremon Smith and Desmond King has been a stable punt returner. Rodgers has potential as a receiver, but he’s only caught eight passes for 95 yards. Given Houston’s recent lack of success with Tyler Johnson and Tyron Johnson, there’s more doubt that Rodgers can immediately fit in.
Alexander: History isn’t on either player’s side. But if I had a guess, it’d be Eno Benjamin, given the success he was having before the Cardinals parted ways with him, and given the lack of success Rodgers was having with the Packers. Rogers had fumbled five times and lost two of them with the Packers, which is concerning, and likely why Green Bay moved on. It’d be hard to imagine the Texans trusting him so early on special teams. They do need receiver help but haven’t utilized multiple receivers often this season. Plus receivers Phillip Dorsett and Chris Moore are playing well in their roles. Rogers has four catches for 50 yards.
The Texans have put a focus on becoming a running team, and though Pierce will continue to be the primary runner, having a runner like Benjamin, someone who can also catch it out of the backfield will help give him more opportunities to
be on the field when needed. Benjamin has 299 yards rushing, two touchdowns and 184 yards receiving this season. He can be an immediate contributor.
Who gets 100 yards receiving in a game first: Brandin Cooks or Nico Collins?
Kubena: Nico Collins appears to be the featured receiver in Houston’s passing game this season. But if Pep Hamilton and Davis Mills were to alter their plan and target anyone more frequently down the field, I’d expect that to be Brandin Cooks. He’s logged at least one 100-yard game in every season since his rookie year.
But Cooks hasn’t been highly productive since catching seven passes for 82 yards in the season opener against the Colts. Hamilton said the Texans could benefit from taking more calculated shots earlier in games, which also requires Mills to be both aware and willing to seek out his receivers down the field. Cooks appeared to be open for a touchdown last week against the Giants, but Mills instead checked it down to Chris
Moore. There have been other opportunities for Mills and Cooks to connect this season. I’d expect that to happen sometime this season.
Alexander: Based on how things have looked this season, Nico Collins. For one, Davis Mills has looked more comfortable with Collins. He’s been off on a lot of his throws to Cooks. Also, when Mills is off, Collins has shown an ability to make spectacular catches. And two, the coaching staff has gone to Collins more often, especially in critical situations.
To be honest, I’m not really sure either will post a 100-yard game. The Texans haven’t built their offense to do that this season, and Mills has struggled.
Can Davis Mills prove he can be QB1 for 2023, or have the Texans seen enough?
Kubena: Lovie Smith has made it clear he’s not prepared to bench Davis Mills for backup Kyle Allen yet. If now isn’t the time, then I’d imagine that kind of move isn’t on the table this season. The Texans are 1-7-1. They’re realistically out of playoff contention, so as Mills continues to play, Smith and general manager Nick Caserio continue to evaluate whether they need to draft a quarterback with a potential No. 1 overall pick in 2023.
If they were done with their evaluation, they’d probably bench Mills. He’s dug himself quite a hole in his past three games, and it’s not just that he’s thrown as many interceptions (four) as touchdowns. His completion percentage (59.09) has been dismal, particularly in the first half of games, and the offense averages the fourthfewest yards per drive (27.4) mostly due to the passing game’s deficiencies. Mills will need a radical improvement in these last eight games to change the Texans’ minds. But remember, Mills is under contract through the 2024 season. If the Texans choose to spend a top pick on a quarterback, Mills would be expected to still contend for a starting spot. He’d then either regain the job or enter the role of a dependable backup.
Alexander: I think we’ve seen enough of Davis Mills through the first nine games to suggest that he shouldn’t be QB1 for 2023, especially if they want to win. Could Mills be helped with additional weapons? Yes. But there have been far too many off-target throws from Mills to suggest that the Texans take another chance on him for 2023 and not draft a potential franchise quarterback. That is far too risky and could derail their attempts at a proper rebuild. Quarterback is the most important position and the Texans should treat it as such. According to Pro Football Reference, 21 percent of Mills’ have been off-target or considered “bad throws.” Only two players have a worse percentage — Washington’s Carson Wentz and the New York Jets’ Zach Wilson. Neither of those players is looking like their teams’ long-term future, either.
Lovie Smith and Pep Hamilton have both said they haven’t discussed making a change at quarterback this season. They believe there have been a number of factors involved with the offense’s lack of production. That’s true. But Mills certainly hasn’t helped.