THE LOWDOWN
The Texans are looking to break their seven-game losing streak with yet another shakeup at quarterback. Davis Mills is returning as Houston’s starting signal-caller, and the rebuilding franchise hopes its turnoverheavy offense will change its fate against the playoff-contending Cowboys. The Chronicle’s Jonathan M. Alexander and Brooks Kubena discuss that and more topics ahead of the game Sunday afternoon at AT&T Stadium:
How do you expect Davis Mills to play in his return as QB1, and how much can he influence how the Texans approach the position in 2023?
Alexander: I expect him to play better. How much better? That remains to be seen. But he’s had the benefit of having two weeks off to sit back and watch what he did wrong and how he could correct those issues. Among those issues were his mechanics. I’m sure he’ll be mindful of that in this game, and I bet the Texans will try to simplify the game plan for him. He’s been through this before, and he insists he remains confident. The biggest concern for me is that he’ll be without his top two weapons in Nico Collins and Brandin
Cooks. The last time that happened was Week 9 against the Eagles. Mills played fairly well, but the Texans clearly didn’t have enough weapons to beat the Eagles. The Cowboys have similar talent and have the second-best pass defense in the NFL. As for the second part of this question, I don’t think it matters how well Mills plays. Their approach should and will likely stay the same. I think they’ll pursue a rookie quarterback in 2023. They’ll have their choices. His play will likely determine how quickly they play that rookie, though.
Kubena: I expect Mills to be more confident in his decisionmaking, although I’m not convinced he’ll have that many opportunities to make decisions that produce meaningful yardage and points within the confines of this offense. I agree — at this rate, I’d expect the Texans to have both a new quarterback and offensive coordinator in 2023. There’d have to be dramatic improvement in these final games to alter that course. But yes, Cooks (calf ) and Collins (foot) will both miss Sunday’s game, and as you point out, that doesn’t necessarily spell doom. Mills was 8-of-9 passing for 90 yards and two touchdowns in perhaps the franchise’s best half of football this season in that game against the Eagles. Still, Mills did follow that half by going 5-of-13 for 54 yards and two interceptions, which had a lot to do with Philadelphia’s shutting down rookie running back Dameon Pierce. There is a potential advantage Sunday for Mills: The Cowboys lost starting cornerbacks Jourdan Lewis and Anthony Brown to injuries, and backup Kelvin Joseph missed some practice this week with an illness.
Has the Texans’ run defense actually improved, and can they stop the Cowboys’ running game?
Kubena: There has been a small sample size of improvement, yes, although I’m not yet certain how sustainable it can be. The Texans defense turned in its most impressive game of 2022 against the Browns and the NFL’s third-leading rusher, Nick Chubb, who was limited to 80 yards on 17 carries. Houston’s defensive linemen often bullied Cleveland’s blockers and were constantly in the backfield closing off running lanes. A lot of that pressure came from the interior. Nose tackles Roy Lopez and Kurt Hinish were often winning battles against a backup center, and the Cowboys have one of the league’s most solid run blockers and a running back trio in Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard and Malik Davis that’s collectively averaged 5.2 yards per carry in the last five games with 13 rushing touchdowns. Dallas will reveal just how genuine Houston’s recent improvements are.
Alexander: Yes, I do think they’ve improved. Like you said, to hold Chubb to 80 yards was impressive last week. I mean, at one point, the Texans were allowing 180 yards rushing per game. They are still averaging the most in a decade, but that number is down to 169.1 now. I think defensive tackle Maliek Collins’ return to the lineup, as well as rookie linebacker Christian Harris’ emergence, has certainly helped. Other players are also finally making tackles. But the Texans aren’t some stout run defense. There are still areas they can improve, like getting a better push in the interior. The Cowboys have two starting-caliber running backs in Elliott and Pollard, so either can have a big game. I don’t foresee the Cowboys having the running game that the Titans had in Week 8, but I can see them doing what the Giants did. The Giants ran it 47 times for 191 yards and a 4.1 yards-per-carry average. They established the run and took their shots when available. Having two backs like Elliott and Pollard can wear a defense down. And I think that’s the approach the Cowboys will likely take.
Lovie Smith says the Texans are trying to make progress week to week. What would progress look like this week?
Alexander: Cashing in on red-zone trips. Scoring more than 20 points in a game. Consistently running the football. Limiting turnovers. Stopping or limiting the run. Taking some deep shots and connecting with the open receivers. These are all the things that have limited the Texans this year. And if they can achieve these tasks, especially taking care of the football, they keep this game close. The Cowboys are on fire right now. Pollard and Elliott are a nightmare combined. But Dallas has also lost games to bad teams like the Green Bay Packers, so it’s not impossible. Progress will be actually being in a position to win at the end and not scoring in garbage time. The Texans need this.
Kubena: There are 17 players whose contracts expire after this season, and only five of the 40 players under contract next season would be a negative cap hit for the Texans if the rebuilding franchise were to cut them, according to Over The Cap. Long-term progress is what matters at this point (with the Texans mathematically eliminated from the playoffs), and it’s very likely a large portion of the players on this 2022 team will be replaced in 2023. Any immediate progress is identifying more players who can help the Texans be contenders in the future. We’ve seen Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard lock down as blockers at offensive tackle. Can Kenyon Green regain the coaching staff ’s full confidence to play every offensive snap? Can center Scott Quessenberry and A.J. Cann provide the consistency that would allow the Texans to pursue upgrades elsewhere in the offseason? Will Christian Kirksey finish more plays at linebacker and satisfy the two-year extension he signed? We know the established rookies (Derek Stingley, Jalen Pitre, Dameon Pierce, etc.) will be around next year. Who else will prove they belong?
What position group has impressed you the most this year? Which group needs the most work?
Kubena: It’s really quite impressive how much improvement Houston’s overhaul at cornerback has yielded. The unit was disastrous in 2021, when the Texans surrendered 19 pass plays of 30-plus yards. There’s a reason Lovie Smith said in the offseason that they couldn’t play the type of football they wanted until they got better at cornerback. Steven Nelson just might be the best free-agent signing in the Nick Caserio era so far. Quarterbacks have a 72.1 rating when targeting Nelson (the 22nd-lowest among all NFL cornerbacks), and the veteran’s stability has helped the rebuilding franchise’s secondary limit opponents to just eight passes of 30-plus yards this season. Stingley, the No. 3 overall pick, was progressing before sustaining a hamstring injury after 10 games, but nickel safety Desmond King has filled in nicely since then.
The Texans must — I repeat, must — get better on the defensive line. I could throw in the linebacker corps, too, since Kirksey and Harris have contributed to the run-fit struggles that often plagued this defense in 2022. But Smith’s scheme hinges on a four-man rush dominating the line of scrimmage and causing havoc in the backfield. That just simply hasn’t happened frequently enough. The Texans rank in the bottom half of the league with 28 sacks, and only Jerry Hughes and Rasheem Green have produced three or more. Opposing running backs gash the Texans at the league’s fifth-highest yards per carry (4.9), which indicates any tackles for loss the defense secures are eventually overridden by an explosive run. Collins is Houston’s most disruptive lineman, but the 3technique defensive tackle has only played 47 percent of the team’s defensive snaps. In what’s usually an eight-man rotation, the Texans need to strengthen the defensive front with nearly the same urgency they did cornerback last offseason.
Alexander: Since you’re going cornerbacks, I’ll go linebackers. Yes, they were struggling early in the year. But since being embarrassed in Week 8 against the Titans and Derrick Henry, they’ve steadily improved, and they’re a huge reason the Texans run’ defense has improved. Harris is playing good football as a rookie, and so is veteran linebacker Kirksey.
The position group that needs the most work is the quarterbacks. They’ve certainly had a lot of pressure from the interior. It didn’t help that the Texans lost their starting center in the beginning of the season. But the Texans lead the league in giveaways, and that’s because their quarterbacks have been careless with the football. Last week, Kyle Allen produced more points for the Browns than he did for the Texans. In order for this offense to get going, their quarterbacks have to improve.