THE LOWDOWN
The Texans face the Chiefs in Week 15 of the regular season. Houston Chronicle Texans beat reporters Jonathan M. Alexander and Brooks Kubena discuss the matchup and more pressing topics in this week’s preview.
How many takeaways will the defense have to have to make this a game?
Kubena: Look, the Texans gained four extra possessions against the Cowboys, scored 17 points off those possessions and still lost. We know Lovie Smith loves turnovers, but until the offense can reliably score points, it’s not really going to matter if they gain an extra possession or not.
The Texans score the NFL’s second-fewest points per drive (1.41) and average the league’s fewest yards per drive (24.5). They’ve had a positive turnover margin in six games this season and lost all but one of them.
Still, the Texans have only had a plus-two turnover margin in one game. That was their win against the Jaguars. So, if it took two extra possessions to narrowly beat a 5-8 Jaguars team, it will at the very least require that many to knock off the 10-3 Chiefs.
Alexander: I think at least three. Kansas City is so good offensively, Brooks, that they are able to overcome mistakes. They remind me of the Golden
State Warriors in their ability to come from behind because of their 3-point shooting. Patrick Mahomes is arguably the best quarterback in the NFL right now, certainly an MVP candidate. But he’s prone to mistakes. He had three interceptions in last week’s win against the Broncos. Yet, they still found a way to win. I don’t know who will be able to guard Travis Kelce, but he’s a one of the best to ever to do it at the tight end position.
But aside from those turnovers they force, I think they also have to do a good job of taking care of the football. They’ve got to win the turnover battle by at least two. You saw that last week against the Cowboys. The Texans were winning the turnover battle all day and it was still not enough to create much separation.
How do you expect the secondary to perform if Derek Stingley Jr. and Steven Nelson are out?
Alexander: The Texans run a lot of zone, but you may see that magnified. Derek Stingley Jr. was the No. 3 pick for a reason. He can shut down an opposing top receiver and Steven Nelson has been solid all year too in coverage. Both are also good tacklers.
Now Tremon Smith will have to step into that role again. Smith played great last week. He had two interceptions, including one that almost sealed the game late in the fourth quarter. But can he do it for a full game? I think that’s the biggest question. Smith is listed as 5-11, which may be generous, and he’s 190 pounds. So he’s somewhat undersized for an outside corner. I think the thing that would worry me is the depth. Outside of Desmond King, Tavierre Thomas and Smith, their other corners haven’t played much. Kansas City is so good offensively, that they’ll likely find a way to exploit that.
Kubena: Dak Prescott was 7-of-10 passing for 92 yards and a touchdown before Nelson exited last week’s game with an ankle injury, and that included a 51-yard bomb in which Prescott attacked Nelson deep downfield. Prescott was 17-of-29 passing for 192 yards and two interceptions the rest of the way, and it was Nelson’s backup, Tremon Smith, who picked off the Cowboys quarterback twice. Stingley hasn’t played since Week 10, and it’s impressive how career nickel safety Desmond King has filled in during the last four games.
No quarterback has averaged more than 7.3 yards per attempt in that span, which included Prescott and former Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson. The Texans previously had surrendered more than that average four times this season. The uptick in efficiency also aligns with the ongoing development of rookie safety Jalen Pitre, who levied some crushing hits against the Cowboys last week. Jonathan Owens dislodged a would-be touchdown in Dallas, too. I’d expect Lovie Smith to play a lot of two-high safeties against Patrick Mahomes, so Pitre and Owens will have to react more swiftly than they’ve done all season to stop Kansas City’s potent attack.
What does the QB combo say about Mills’ future with this team?
Kubena: Well, it says that the Texans coaching staff does not believe their best option to win within this offense this season is an offensive game plan in which Mills is the full-time quarterback. That doesn’t offer much confidence that the Texans believe Mills can be their best option to win next year either. Mills threw as many touchdowns as interceptions before he was benched for Kyle Allen, and he was never quite able to push the ball consistently downfield for meaningful yardage. Mills improved in his decisionmaking while splitting snaps with Driskel against the Cowboys.
He averaged 8.33 yards per attempt, his second-highest total of the season, and he completed a season-high 76.2 percent of his passes. Mills might have earned back some trust to become the team’s full-time quarterback with that game. With four games remaining, we’ll see if that continues and if he earns enough trust to steer the Texans away from acquiring another quarterback in the offseason.
Alexander: I agree. It shows that they still have reservations about Mills. They don’t feel he’s capable enough to win an entire game by himself consistently. Mills lost the trust of his coaching staff when he threw for a league-leading 11 interceptions at the time he was benched. And his replacement, Allen was worse.
But Mills remains their best down field throwing option.
As of now, adding Driskel to the game plan in red zone situations and third-and-short, gives them the best chance.
Sunday’s game without Pierce could be scary, unless offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton can find a way to be creative and catch the Chiefs off-guard.
This is why the Texans will most likely target a quarterback with one of their first two picks in the draft. Franchise quarterbacks can put a team on their backs when everything is going wrong.
The Texans need that.