THE LOWDOWN
INDIANAPOLIS — The Texans face the Colts in their Week 18 season finale Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium. Texans beat reporters Jonathan M. Alexander and Brooks Kubena discuss the main storylines heading into the game.
What are the chances the Texans end up with the No. 2 pick and not the No. 1 pick by the end of the afternoon?
Kubena: Although the Colts are favored, this is the sort of game the Texans are built to win. The mistake-prone Colts lead the league with 31 turnovers, and the Texans have forced seven interceptions in the past five games. Sam Ehlinger, Indy’s third-string quarterback, will be starting, and it’d be consistent if the Texans’ secondary was able to snag one or two away from the former Longhorn. There’s also too many players and coaches in the Texans organization who are fighting for current or future jobs. This is also a regime that seems to believe they can add meaningful players no matter how high they are slotted. It’s hard to believe these Texans don’t have a better record than last season’s, but Nick Caserio and Lovie Smith were pleased with picking Derek Stingley Jr. at No. 3 overall. Smith said Monday they believe they can add a helpful player at No. 1 or No. 2.
Alexander: I think the chances are great. I mean, if you look at it, the Texans have a 50-50 shot to beat the Colts. I predicted they’d win 21-18 on Sunday. The first game was a tie, and the Colts have since gotten worse, losing nine of their past 10. They are starting third-string quarterback Sam Ehlinger, who in three games has passed for 364 yards, one touchdown and one interception. All-Pro running back Jonathan Taylor is also out. The Texans aren’t good, either, missing their top weapon in Dameon Pierce, and are coming off a 31-3 loss to the Jaguars. Both the Texans and Colts appear to be two of the three worst teams in the league right now. That third team is the Bears, who face the 12-4 Vikings, and will be without starting quarterback Justin Fields, who has basically carried them offensively. There’s almost no chance the Bears win. And we know if the Bears lose, and the Texans win, they’ll drop down to the No. 2 pick. I’m expecting the Texans to have the second overall pick in the 2023 draft by Sunday evening.
Should the Texans tank this final game?
Kubena: The objective answer is yes. There is nothing tangible a win does than prevent the Texans from choosing whoever they want at No. 1 overall. Purists will say it is against the spirit of the sport to will yourself to lose. But the NFL doesn’t exist in some idealistic vacuum. As soon as a rule is written that gives the worst team the top pick, there naturally arises an incentive for those near the bottom of the standings to lose. This really has been normalized in Houston. The Astros founded their World Series championships on years of losing. The Rockets have been doing it recently, too. If Caserio, Smith and every player called a news conference in the locker room, stood together and said, “in the best interest of the team, we’re going to lose on Sunday,” most of Houston wouldn’t argue with them. In fact, because of the fan base’s current apathy, most probably wouldn’t care.
Alexander: Earlier in the week, I might have said yes.
But I don’t think so. Here’s why: I think the Texans’ top priority this offseason should be getting their franchise quarterback and solving that conundrum first. You can’t win without one, and this starts that process. According to draft analysts, Alabama’s Bryce Young or Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, figure to be the top two
quarterback options in this draft. But even if the Texans fall to the No. 2 overall pick, I think both Young and Stroud will be there. The Bears likely wouldn’t pick a quarterback first overall since Justin Fields is balling this year and looks like a stud. I know there’s a chance a team can trade with the Bears, but given the talent at the top, I can see the Bears drafting Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter No. 1 overall to solve their three-technique position. Also, draft experts have told me the Texans can’t go wrong with either Young or Stroud. I know it’s early, and a lot can change between now and the draft. But regardless, I think the Texans can solve their quarterback issue at No. 1 or No. 2. I don’t know which one will have the better career, but I think both have great potential.
Is there anything in this game that will change how the Texans evaluate Lovie Smith, Pep Hamilton, and Davis Mills?
Kubena: NFL teams didn’t start playing 17-game seasons until 2021. Cal McNair and Nick Caserio both have made decisions after 16 games. The Texans have made clear their identity in a body of work that doesn’t have any lingering questions. Pep Hamilton’s offense is worse in almost every statistical category than Houston’s scheme was in 2021 under
fired offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and that has largely been due to the regression of Davis Mills. The defense has been consistently bad against the run, and there’s enough volatility in the front seven and secondary to suggest upgrades at linebacker and along the defensive interior could lead to better results in 2023 in a scheme that would adapt to those additions. One of the interesting developments of the season has been Lovie Smith’s new willingness to go for it on fourth down. The third-time head coach punted in overtime to seal a tie against the Colts in the season opener and punted near midfield against the Chiefs when more analytics-based coaches would’ve attempted to seize control of the game against a potent offense they’re suddenly outscoring. But Smith went for it against the Titans, and its failure yielded a touchdown, but it could be baby steps to a willingness to consider that what appears to be a risk isn’t always one. Maybe we have one more game to see if that trend continues.
Alexander: I don’t think this one game will have much of an effect on the how they evaluate all three, particularly Hamilton and Mills. I do want to make this clear, though: Under the right circumstances, and with continued development. I think Mills could be a solid quarterback. He has shown flashes of that. Is he the right fit for the Texans and their long term answer? No. He’s made far too many mistakes, and the Texans can’t afford to be patient with him as the starter next year. I feel similarly about Pep Hamilton. I think he’s a good coach and has shown it in other stops, like the Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers and Michigan Wolverines. With the right quarterback and weapons, I think Hamilton would have had more success. He just doesn’t seem to be the right fit with this Texans team. The Texans are last in total offense. Some type of change must be made. As for Smith, I think having played some of the top teams — the Chiefs and Cowboys — competitively and then winning against the Titans helped him. Then the Jaguars game happened, and it was not a good look. It’s true, one season is not enough for a head coach to turn around a program. And this team was without weapons and wasn’t expected to compete this season. Heck, I had them winning four games based on their talent alone. But if Nick Caserio can’t see the pathway forward, or thinks there’s a better option for him out there after evaluating the season, then this game does little at affecting that evaluation. I think we’ve seen most of what we know from the Texans. But a loss won’t be looked upon fondly.
How do the Texans become a winning organization and how long will it take?
Kubena: Caserio blew up bad contracts in 2021 and kept the roster budget tight through this season so that his personnel department can finally fill the team with the talent perpetual playoff contenders are stocked with. Texans fans got a sneak preview from rookies such as Dameon Pierce, Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley Jr., and Caserio has 11 more picks and two first-rounders to spend in the upcoming draft again. Add a No. 1 overall quarterback, spend their newfound wealth of cash on free agents, and this is a team that shouldn’t be at the bottom of the standings again in 2023. Turnarounds have happened quicker, but I believe it’s fair to think the Texans should be expected to make the playoffs in 2024
Alexander: Brooks, I look at teams such as the Bengals and the Jaguars, who were at the bottom and able to turn their franchises around recently, and I think the answer is they’ve got to get the quarterback position right. Drafting high helps, but you’ve got to get the quarterback position right and put pieces around that guy. The Texans have got to find the right quarterback whether that’s C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young in this drive. That starts the process. The fact that the Texans have four first-round picks in the next two drafts, along with the increase in cap space, is good. They can fill a lot of much needed holes and solve their issues. I think the Texans could be competitive in two years if they draft correctly and sign the right pieces. Lock down those two tackles and build around the new franchise quarterback.