New hurricane maps pack more certainty
We are still about four months from the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane season on June 1, but it’s never too early to start prepping for what’s to come in 2024, especially if you live along the Texas Gulf Coast. This year, the National Hurricane Center will deploy an experimental product that will change the way you view hurricane forecast cones, which show the likely path of a storm, otherwise known as the “cone of uncertainty.”
Here’s why changes are needed. A study done by the University of Colorado found that many people do not fully understand the cone of uncertainty. For decades, the National Hurricane Center has used the cone to warn residents of possible danger. However, the study found that this gives many people who live outside of the cone a false sense of security, thinking they will be unaffected by the incoming storm.
In reality, hurricanes can produce hazardous weather in areas outside of the cone of uncertainty. Hurricane-force winds sometimes extend more than 100 miles away from the eye of the storm. The changes put forth by the National Hurricane Center in 2024 aim to change the false perception of safety.
Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center, told WeatherNation in an video interview that they wanted “to bring the actual hazards of a hurricane forward and have it be a hazards-forward approach,” rather than an approach centered around the projected path.
The main change you will notice will be how the cone appears while over land. In the past, watches and warnings were only shown along the coastline. Alerts were not shown inland, which led folks who lived there to not know exactly what to expect.
With the changes this year, all weather alerts, whether along the coast or inland, will be visible. That way, the overall risks and alert locations are being highlighted, rather than the storm’s projected track.
These changes are also coming in lieu of new information about where people are being affected by hurricanes.
Rhome said “if you look at trends in mortality or trends in death in association with hurricanes, we’re getting greater and greater mortality, or higher mortality inland, away from the landfall location.”
Because death rates are going up over inland locations, it’s time to address that by showing just what you can expect in those inland locations, Rhome said.
This is not a change that has come quickly, either. Rhome said his team at the National Hurricane Center has spent about a year looking at data and existing research about how people perceive hurricanes and hurricane risk. After that, it took a few months to prototype the new maps.
The new forecast cone is not completely new to the National Hurricane Center.
“We were testing it behind the scenes in the 2023 season,” Rhome said.
It’s important to note that the changes for the 2024 hurricane season are considered experimental. It’s not a permanent change yet, and the old forecast cone will still be available for now. However, the National Hurricane Center will analyze the results of the experiment following the 2024 season and use their findings to guide their next steps.