Addition of sharpshooter would help
Q: How should the Rockets think of their season?
A: Unless only the team holding the championship trophy can consider its season a success, the Rockets should consider theirs successful. They had the third-best record in the NBA despite a run of injuries that began in the second game of the season and continued until its end, with two starters out through the playoffs. The intended starting lineup played just two games together. The Rockets had some rocky times in the postseason, but they still reached the conference finals for the first time since 1997. James Harden had a sensational season. Role players stepped up well. Kevin McHale and his staff answered doubts, earning the security of the contract extension McHale received in December.
Q: Where do they go from here?
A: Harden can use some help initiating the offense. For the Rockets to succeed in the postseason, he had to be a sensational playmaker and scorer. If he slipped in either area, the Rockets did not have someone to fill those roles. They don’t necessarily need playmaking to come from the point guard. Harden will be the primary ballhandler anyway, so if the Rockets did have that kind of playmaker at the point, he likely would have to defer or come off the bench. But that would help. A knockdown shooter at any of the positions around Harden and Dwight Howard would be a significant addition.
Q: Will they be giving another free agent the Dwight Howard/Carmelo Anthony treatment?
A: It’s unlikely. After several offseasons in which the Rockets got nowhere in the effort to pursue free agents while over the salary cap, they made sure they had the cap room the past two offseasons to land Howard and chase Anthony and Chris Bosh. They will kick the tires on the top free agents to see if they can get any interest, especially from LaMarcus Aldridge or Kevin Love, but with Harden and Howard excepted, they would have to find ways to move most of the nucleus not playing for the minimum or on rookie deals to create room for the summer’s stars. They are more likely to keep their rights to their own players, stay over the cap to keep their mid-level exception, and seek more subtle additions than in recent offseasons.
Q: Will they keep their own free agents?
A: They are in a strong position with Pat Beverley. He is a restricted free agent, and the Rockets have Bird rights to him, allowing them to exceed the cap to sign him. They also are extremely likely to keep Corey Brewer. Josh Smith will be tougher to keep since he has earned offers greater than the Rockets can make because they do not have Bird rights to him. Jason Terry might have to play for the veteran’s minimum, but he has indicated he wants to be back. They can use a portion of their mid-level exception to bring back KJ McDaniels. There is a good chance they do not pick up their option on Kostas Papanikolaou. They would try to sign him to a less expensive contract, but he could get offers around the league.
Q: What about the players they have rights to overseas?
A: Sergio Llull would be a fine addition at point guard, especially if Beverley is back so that the Rockets would not be counting on a rookie at the position. Llull would have to make a leap of faith he has not taken before, but he could want to get to the NBA in time to set himself up for a bigger contract when the salary cap goes up. Llull always has placed a priority on winning championships and took the Euroleague title this season, but he could consider the Rockets a contender. Marko Todorovic had a strong season, but he appears at least a year away.
Q: Will more modest changes be enough?
A: There is a clear gap between Golden State and the rest of the West, the Rockets included, but the Warriors also grew together, as the Rockets could if they have the continuity they have lacked in the past. Terrence Jones did not develop the consistency he might have had if he hadn’t missed 49 games with injuries. Donatas Motiejunas will be back from his injury, but he’d have to show he can be as effective playing with Howard as he was when Howard was out. Beverley also could improve if he can stay healthy enough to remain in the lineup, as he could not this season. Rookies Clint Capela, Nick Johnson and McDaniels could be rotation players. Even Harden could get better still. As significant a step up as he made this season, becoming the MVP runner-up, he was still learning about being a team’s most important player and a leader.
Q: Will the Rockets be championship contenders next season?
A: They were one of the last three teams standing this season. Barring unforeseen setbacks, that makes them contenders next season. But nothing is assured. They needed a miraculous turnaround to knock off the Clippers in a series that could have gone the other way. And if the Spurs had won their regularseason finale, the Rockets would have been facing the Clippers in the first round. The West will be even stronger, with New Orleans likely to keep progressing around Anthony Davis, Oklahoma City unlikely to suffer anything like the injury issues of this season, and San Antonio in position to be a player in free agency. The Rockets’ postseason run, however, can benefit them heading into next season. They also are extremely unlikely to go through this season’s injury issues. Judging from the enormous impact made by in-season additions Brewer and Smith, relatively small moves can make a big difference. The Rockets are not far off, but they still have strides to make to win a championship. They are among the teams with a chance to take such steps.