Clinton seeks Texas boost
Campaign hopes state’s delegate prize helps seal deal
AUSTIN — Hillary Clinton’s deep Texas roots give hope to supporters that a strong win here on March 1 would help her seal a Democratic nomination that has been unexpectedly difficult to secure against Bernie Sanders’ idealistic campaign.
Clinton campaign officials say they know they have to work hard for it, especially since Sanders established an early ground game in the Lone Star State.
Clinton’s campaign also knows that mathematically, no candidate will have the 2,382 delegates needed to win the Democratic nod when results are tallied on March 1.
Only just over half that number is allocated to states voting on or before Super Tuesday, and the proportional system of allocating delegates will help keep Sanders in the game even if he comes second in big states.
But a big Clinton win in Texas — whose diverse population is representative of the country in a way that Iowa or New Hampshire are not, and whose 252 delegates are the most at stake to that point — would give Sanders, a U.S. senator from Vermont, a much bigger hill to climb against the former senator and secretary of state.
“If we do well here, it’s going to be difficult for Bernie to overcome the lead we gain,” said former state land commissioner Garry Mauro, a member of Clinton’s Texas leadership team and chairman of a grassroots orga-
nization working for her in the state. “It establishes trends that are difficult to reverse.”
Mauro emphasized, however, that hard work is needed to earn voters’ support; Clinton’s campaign, he said, is doing it. When asked whether a Texas win could seal the deal for Clinton, Mauro said, “That’s a very cocky way to look at it.”
“Every state is a battleground, and we are going to win every state one at a time,” he said. “We are going to earn this nomination by campaigning for it and talking about the issues. ... We’ve got to earn this nomination the old-fashioned way, and that’s campaign state by state, precinct by precinct, vote by vote.”
As evidence of Texas’ importance, Clinton will appear at a get-out-the-vote organizing event in Houston on Saturday, flying in after the Nevada caucus and with the crucial South Carolina vote just a week away. Her husband, former President Bill Clinton, will be in Dallas and Laredo on Monday.
Sanders already has proven his mettle by virtually tying Clinton in Iowa and beating her by a 22-point margin in New Hampshire.
Jacob Limón, Texas state director for the Sanders campaign, pointed out that no candidate will secure the nomination on March 1, Super Tuesday, when there are contests in 11 states and American Samoa.
“Arithmetic would tell you that’s just not possible,” he said, adding that that the process of delegate allocation makes it even more difficult for one candidate to have a blowout win.
Primary fight will continue
Under Texas Democrats’ complicated system, most of the 252 delegates will be allotted on a proportional basis based on the primary vote.
A total of 145 will be distributed based on the vote in each of 31 state Senate districts. Varying numbers are allotted in each district based on its Democratic voting history.
Another 77 delegates are awarded based on the statewide vote.
The remaining 30 delegates are members of Congress or the Democratic National Committee; they can support whomever they’d like.
“You are really hard-pressed to gain a super advantage un- less you just start clobbering your opponent, Senate district by Senate district,” Limón said. “With a really competitive twoperson race, and Bernie polling as well as he is, I think it’s hard to imagine anybody doing so well in the delegate count that they quote unquote ‘put somebody away’ in one state, even Texas.”
That view also is held by Larry J. Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
“There is zero chance that Clinton will cinch the nomination on March 1. Democrats use various forms of proportional representation to allocate delegates, and that slows the process down,” Sabato said.
“Sanders’ challenge has proven to be an energetic one. The earliest the contest could end would be sometime in April, and my bet would be it goes on later than that.”
Walt C. Wilson, an associate professor of political science and geography at the University of Texas at San Antonio whose expertise includes American politics, said even without getting to the delegate threshold needed to win the nomination, Super Tuesday “may be determinative nonetheless.”
“If Clinton wins all or most states voting that day, it will stall the Sanders momentum,” Wilson said. “Alternatively, Sanders may roll up a number of victories in the Northeast and outperform expectations elsewhere. Just as in earlier contests, perception matters going forward.”
Clinton has often been to Texas, where she has roots stretching back to 1972, when she (then Hillary Rodham), Bill Clinton and Mauro worked here to boost George McGovern’s campaign.
“Texas is a key state on Hillary Clinton’s path to the nomination. She has a long record fighting on behalf of Hispanics and African-Americans and getting results, and voters here know that — which is why she enjoys such broad and enthusiastic support here in Texas,” said Clinton campaign spokesman Carlos Sanchez.
‘Excitement’ for Sanders
Limón said the Sanders campaign, which has been on the ground in Texas for three months, believes it has assets that help offset Clinton’s big monetary advantage and her long-term ties.
“There’s a deep excitement level among the people who are volunteering and coming out for Sen. Sanders,” he said. “I know that’s hard to quantify. When you see it, it’s a dynamic in the campaign that I think is an equalizer.” In addition, he said, Sanders is bringing new people into the political process.
The road to the nomination, Limón said, “is a marathon. It’s going to be a long race. I think it’s going to be a good night overall for Sen. Sanders on March 1, and we’re just excited about the energy that we’re feeling here in Texas.”
‘Over the finish line’
Sen. Kirk Watson, an Austin Democrat who like Mauro is on Clinton’s Texas Leadership Council, said Texas could have the practical result of sealing the nod for Clinton even if it cannot formally do so.
“It is conceivable, assuming she does well elsewhere on that same day, that it has the practical effect of putting her over the finish line,” Watson said. “Let’s face it: Politically and financially, it can become very hard for Sanders to hold out.”
Manny Garcia, deputy executive director of the Texas Democratic Party, said that after Super Tuesday, both candidates will have to answer basic questions in the diverse states ahead: “Do you have the financial capacity, and is there a viable pathway to victory moving forward?”
“Technically, Texas won’t get you over the finish line,” he said. However, he added, “Texas is one of those really big momentum points.”