What are chances of a deal?
There are innumerable trading routes GM Daryl Morey might venture down; history suggests he’ll take at least one
Rockets general manager Daryl Morey has never let a trade deadline pass without making a move. Even when he thought there would be no deal, there was. And he has little motivation, perhaps less than ever, to sit this one out.
The Rockets’ unexpected struggle just to make the playoffs could have him searching for help. The Rockets have been unable to solve their frontcourt issues. Their defense has collapsed. They could use a shooter. They still lack a second playmaker to help take some of that load off James Harden.
With that many needs, it appears likely they make at least some changes by Thursday’s 2 p.m. deadline. If they cannot get help, given their fall to a losing record, they might instead consider moves that could set up a summer rebuild.
Either way, multiple individuals familiar with trade talks said Morey has been extremely active heading into the deadline.
A look at the possibilities in order of likelihood:
Trade for power forward
The Rockets’ long search for a power forward solution could have them looking again. They thought they were set with Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas. But Jones has struggled through much of the season and regressed defensively, and Motiejunas is still working his way
back from last year’s back surgery. Though he is expected to be ready to rejoin the rotation, he likely will need time to get up to speed, as he did when he was cleared to play in December.
The Rockets have moved to rarely playing power forwards at all, with Trevor Ariza starting at the four and Josh Smith not playing at all in the second half of the past three games, all with Jones out after his car accident and Motiejunas in the NBA Development League.
There could be power forwards on the market.
The Rockets have long tried to get Ryan Anderson out of New Orleans. With free agency looming for Anderson after the season, the Pelicans could be ready to move him, and many teams are interested, even with the uncertainty of keeping him.
The Phoenix Suns have long been expected to move Markieff Morris, even with his return to the starting lineup since Earl Watson took over as coach. Morris is signed for two seasons after this one.
The Brooklyn Nets’ Thaddeus Young also could be on the move and would offer a proven version of what the Rockets hoped Jones would be by his fourth season.
Dilemma on Lawson
The Rockets don’t have a pressing need to move Ty Lawson. By getting him to agree to make the final season of his contract at the team’s option, they gave themselves the option of keeping him this season to create more cap room by not picking up the last season of his deal.
He could be a player viewed as worth more to a team in need of a point guard than he has been valuable to the Rockets. He has shown flashes of being the player he was with the Denver Nuggets, but those have been too infrequent to make him a significant part of the rota- tion. The idea his struggles are from a poor fit with Harden ignore that he has not played very differently with or without Harden.
Still, the Rockets cannot have him run the offense for long stretches, as other teams might. His contract, worth $12.4 million this season, will make matching salaries difficult and could make the Rockets hesitant to bring back that much in salary if it goes beyond this season.
Others on the bubble
Ariza will be an attractive target for teams, given his defensive versatility and ability to fit well around stars, and he comes with a manageable contract. He has become increasingly important to the Rockets since the move to the small lineup.
Corey Brewer has moved into the starting lineup, but the Rockets gave K.J. McDaniels a long-term deal and cannot get him on the floor. Jones and Motiejunas will be restricted free agents but had been considered strong trade assets before this season, especially with Montrezl Harrell showing potential. Clean house
The Rockets have never been open to tanking during Leslie Alexander’s ownership and are unlikely to give up on the season even with the slide to ninth in the Western Conference. But there could be reasons to go in that direction.
Morey has often said the goal is to build a championship team, not a solid playoff team. Even if he picks up help and the Rockets right themselves, they are unlikely to move into the West’s upper echelon. They likely would face Golden State, San Antonio or Oklahoma City in the first round of the playoffs.
If the Rockets make the playoffs, their firstround pick would go to the Nuggets. If they were to move long-term contracts and seek to rebuild in the offseason, they could have massive cap room and their first-round pick to rebuild around Harden.
That sort of strategy has not been their history and would be in conflict with the comments when Kevin McHale was fired that they still believed in this team. That was a lot of losses ago, maybe enough to have changed their plans as much as their status in the West.
Howard on hold
The Rockets have had conversations with teams about Dwight Howard, but several individuals familiar with trade talks said they have been willing to at least talk and gather options about anyone other than Harden. But Howard has clearly lost his untouchable status.
The combination of Howard’s expected free agency and contract, worth $22.4 million this season, makes it difficult to put together a deal with teams wary of giving up too much on a player who could leave in less than 30 games. That could make Howard more valuable to the Rockets than any package of players they get back. Though it is difficult to bet on successfully using cap room, the Rockets often do. That could make them willing to keep Howard for the season, or at least not feel an urgency to move him this week.
Do nothing
The trade deadline does often produce surprising results.
The Rockets don’t have to make moves now to give them spending money in free agency. With the coming spike in the salary cap, most teams don’t need to make the kinds of moves common at the trade deadline to set themselves up for the summer. The Rockets still believe their core can get it back together.
Still, they never do nothing at the deadline and would seem especially unlikely to start now.