March madness is upon us
The NCAA men’s basketball selection committee will meet in Indianapolis this weekend to decide which 36 at-large teams will join 32 automatic qualifiers in this season’s tournament and where they will be seeded. The announcement will come Sunday night.
The consensus of experts entering the final weekend of play in conference tournaments is that, barring upsets, the No. 1 seeds in the four regions will be Kansas, Villanova, Michigan State and Virginia.
As for all four of those teams reaching the Final Four on April 2-4 at NRG Stadium, the odds against are 57-1. Only once, in 2008, have all four topseeded teams earned Final Four berths.
In 1993, three No. 1 seeded teams and a No. 2 reached the Final Four. But in 2011, No. 3, 4, 8 and 11 advanced all the way.
That’s why they play the games, beginning next Tuesday and Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio, where four teams, perhaps including Texas Southern, will meet to play their way into the Final 64.
Other than which team will eventually cut down the nets in Houston, the question most asked is about which team has the best chance to become the tournament’s Cinderella team.
A popular choice all season has been Monmouth University from New Jersey. The Hawks have gone viral on You Tube with the zany celebrations of their bench warmers during games, but they also have played excellent basketball at times, upsetting UCLA, Notre Dame, University of Southern California and Georgetown.
But, although they have a 27-7 record, they are in danger of not making the tournament after losing in the MAAC conference title game 79-76 to Iona on Monday night.
Only two MAAC teams have been granted atlarge bids.
Perhaps more damaging to Monmouth’s chances than the loss in the conference final was a 16-point loss to Iona during the regular season.
So perhaps Iona, 22-10, will be Cinderella?
Following are predictions of Chronicle college sports editor Jenny Dial Creech:
Final Four:
Kansas has competed in arguably the best conference in the country (the Big 12) this season and is 14-3 against teams among the top 50 in RPI rankings. Senior forward Perry Ellis leads Kansas with 16.5 points and 6.0 assists per outing.
Although Oklahoma has lost a few close games lately, the Sooners boast the country’s top player in senior guard Buddy Hield (25.1 points per game) and put together one of the most impressive nonconference schedules, with highlighted wins over Wisconsin and Villanova.
North Carolina has depth and leadership, including from senior forward Brice Johnson, who averages 16.8 points and 10.8 rebounds. The Tar Heels have been well tested in ACC play and also picked up impressive nonconference wins over Butler and Villanova.
If history means anything, Michigan State is always capable of making it to the Final Four.
The Spartans have been nine times, six under coach Tom Izzo.
Impressive wins over Kansas and Maryland are highlights of the Spartans’ season.
They are 10-2 in their last 12 games.
Cinderella:
The Providence Friars will likely earn a midrange seed — somewhere in the 8-10 range — but could surprise teams in the tournament.
The Friars are no stranger to tough competition. In nonconference play, they played a tough schedule that included wins over Arizona and Creighton. In Big East play, they picked up two wins over Butler and one over Villanova. If the Friars get hot as the tournament starts, they will provide tough competition to anyone in their way.