Alternatives limited at moment
It seems long ago when the closer’s competition between Luke Gregerson and Ken Giles was the most prominent story line of Astros spring training. But it’s taken only seven weeks of April and May for last year’s breakout team to turn from a trendy 2016 World Series pick to being on the verge of a lost season.
The 17-28 Astros are baseball’s most underachieving team, and there is plenty of blame to go around for the reasons, a flawed roster chief among them. Both their offense and pitching have
proved inconsistent to the point where it’s realistic they could next week enter the season’s third month without so much as a threegame winning streak.
When the Astros have pitched effectively, their bats have gone quiet. When their bats have broken out, they haven’t pitched particularly well.
And occasionally, struggles in both areas on the same day have doomed them, like in Sunday’s 9-2 loss to Cole Hamels and the second-place Rangers.
The final week of May is too early to deem the Astros tradedeadline sellers, but if the losing persists into mid-June, general manager Jeff Luhnow will likely need to begin to look toward 2017. The American League West’s lastplace team came into the week 10 games behind the first-place Mari-
ners and an abysmal 4-12 in games against division opponents.
As their pitching has stabilized somewhat, it’s the Astros’ bats that have failed to produce as of late. One would be hard-pressed to find a more top-heavy lineup in the majors than that of the Astros, so on days Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa and Colby Rasmus do not produce, the team especially struggles to mount any offense.
The statistics up on down the lineup card suggest manager A.J. Hinch should try to lengthen his lineup by dropping one of his top three — Springer might make the most sense — in the batting order. Those occupying the top four spots in the Astros’ lineup have combined for a .268 batting average. Those in the bottom five spots are batting a dismal .196.
Gaping holes
No team has fewer hits (29), a lower batting average (.174) or a worse OPS (.539) from its five-hole spot than the Astros. Only the Padres have a worse OPS from the sixth spot.
The most gaping holes are the result of major league-worst production from the center field (.508 OPS) and third base (.568 OPS) positions. Center fielders Carlos Gomez and Jake Marisnick have the two highest strikeout rates on the team, fanning in 34.8 and 35.6 percent of their
plate appearances, respectively.
In relying on the likes of Luis Valbuena at third base and Evan Gattis at designated hitter, Luhnow and his front office doubled down on 2015 career years that were unlikely to be replicated this season.
They also banked too heavily on a repeat season from Dallas Keuchel, although no one foresaw the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner’s posting a 5.92 ERA and allowing a major league-worst 73 hits through 10 starts.
The Astros have no chance to salvage their season if Keuchel does not first turn his season around. The Astros’ ace has allowed five runs or more in exactly half
of his outings and has yet to string together back-to-back quality starts. He has not won a decision since his first home start of the season on April 15, when in 2015 fashion he shut down the Tigers over eight innings.
Beyond their current players improving as the season wears on, there are no easy short-term fixes to the holes on the Astros’ roster.
Luhnow already summoned two of the organization’s prospects in third baseman Colin Moran and outfielder/second baseman Tony Kemp. Touted firstbase prospect A.J. Reed, just off the Class AAA disabled list, isn’t in for a promotion until June at the earliest. Pitching prospect Joe Musgrove should reach the majors at some point this summer.
In the case of hot-hitting shortstop/third-base prospect Alex Bregman, the Astros have less incentive to accelerate his path to the majors the further they fall from contention. Bregman has 10 home runs and a 1.083 OPS in 114 at-bats for Class AA Corpus Christi, but generally, whether right or wrong, a team won’t rush its top prospects and risk stunting their development in a lost season. Perhaps if the Astros creep back closer to .500 and 2016 is not lost, the front office would expedite Bregman’s path to Minute Maid Park.
Schedule eases soon
But more or less, the team toiling on the field for the first 45 games is the Astros team for this season. After this week’s threegame series against the Orioles, the schedule eases up, with the next 10 games and 19 of the next 25 against teams that entered Monday with losing records.
An extended hot streak in that span a la the Astros’ April of 2015 is necessary if they are to propel themselves back into the AL West race. If not, the narrative surrounding the team will shift to the spare parts they can sell off for prospects.
A far cry from gracing the cover of Sports Illustrated in March.