Later slot broadens homework for Astros
Major League Baseball’s annual draft beckons, and so too does a unique draft slot for the Astros.
For the first time in Jeff Luhnow’s five-year tenure as general manager, the Astros do not own one of the first two overall selections. By virtue of winning 86 games last season, they must wait until the 17th pick of Thursday night’s first round to draft a player, the franchise’s latest slot since 2009. The luxury of zeroing in on a select few prospects guaranteed to be on the board is no more.
“But we like it,” Astros director of amateur scouting Mike Elias said last week, “because it means the team did well last year.”
Picking 17th also has meant a much larger group of players for the Astros to keep close tabs on throughout the pre-draft process. Save for those expected to be gone within the first few picks — Florida lefthander A.J. Puk is the frontrunner to go No. 1 to the Phillies — the Astros have “done an extreme amount of homework on all of the players in the first round,” Elias said.
Narrowing the targets
That doesn’t mean they know exactly which prospects will remain on the board when their selection rolls around. Elias estimated only eight or nine amateurs with “almost no chance of getting there.” Come Thursday, Luhnow said, the team will line up in order three to five players they like who they feel have a good chance to be on the board.
“It’s a cliché, but you’re going try to take the best player on the board with the first pick,” said Elias, who is leading his fifth draft with the Astros after previously working under Luhnow with the St. Louis Cardinals. “That’s just the only approach that works in baseball.”
Muddled at the top and perceived as deep through the compensation and second and third rounds, this draft in particular is difficult to project. The 2016 class is said to be strong on high-upside high school pitchers, the riskiest of the four demographics, and weak on potentially elite college arms, with no industry consensus after Puk, who is not a sure thing in his own right.
“It’s good timing for the Astros not to pick high,” said John Manuel, editor in chief of Baseball America. “They had pretty decent years to pick first, and this is not a great year to pick first. … This is a better year to pick later. I’ve talked to several scouting directors, front-office people (and) national cross checkers who think that the meat of the draft and the strength of the draft is like the 25 to 75 (range) or 40 to 100, depending on the person you talk to. But it’s a good draft to have extra picks. It’s a good depth draft.”
Manuel said it’s a below average year for collegiate arms and an average one for collegiate bats. There could be a run on college players, regarded as safer picks than high schoolers, within the first 15 or so selections. That may lead to one of the higher upside but riskier high school players dropping to No. 17. Either way, the Astros should have plenty of options, including in the collegiate pitching category.
Mississippi State’s Dakota Hudson, Louisville’s Zack Burdi, Pittsburgh’s T.J. Zeuch, Boston College’s Justin Dunn and Vanderbilt’s Jordan Sheffield, all righthanders, are among the second tier of collegiate pitchers behind Puk.
Kent State lefthander Eric Lauer could also be in the conversation at No. 17. The Astros system is thin on lefthanders. All of their top pitching prospects are righthanders.
Catchers to consider
This year might also line up well for the Astros to nab a catcher, arguably the weakest position in their farm system. Miami’s Zack Collins is likely to be drafted in the top 16, but Virginia’s Matt Thaiss could be available. Thaiss’ ability to hit from the left side is his carrying tool. How a given team feels about his defense and whether he can stick behind the plate will dictate his draft slot.
“Matt Thaiss actually kind of fits the profile of what Luhnow has done over his decade-plus of a guy who’s a polished college hitter, really controls
the strike zone, does not strike out very often, has lefthanded power, and (has) the real significant questions about the defensive position,” Manuel said.
“(Luhnow) had a lot of success with those guys in St. Louis, the Allen Craigs and the Matt Carpenters of the world, guys who were real defensive question marks. (Thaiss) kind of fits that profile where there are not a lot of guys who believe that he can catch, but boy, if he’s a catcher, he’s of real offensive value.”
If the Astros opt to look elsewhere than catcher with their first pick, their second selection might fall directly in the sweet spot of a run of backstops. Collegiate catchers are one of the strongest demographics in this year’s class, with several expected to hear their names called in the second and third rounds.
Louisville’s Will Smith, Clemson’s Chris Okey, Oregon State’s Logan Ice and Wright State’s Sean Murphy could all be in play at No. 61. Two weeks ago, Luhnow scouted the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament, with Collins, Thaiss, Smith and Okey all participants. Smith put on a show in Durham, N.C., homering twice and driving in five runs in a win over Wake Forest.
Domino effect?
“It’s going to be like a fantasy football draft with running backs,” Manuel said of the collegiate catching prospects. “Someone is going to take a catcher a little higher than you thought he would go, and all of a sudden you’re going to go, ‘I’d better get mine.’ ”
Catching should be a position of emphasis for the Astros. Jason Castro is set to become a free agent at season’s end, and his heir apparent has yet to emerge in the minor league system. Evan Gattis’ recent success behind the plate aside, the team’s next primary catcher might not yet be in the organization.
“We’ve got a good inventory of six catchers at the top three (minor league) levels, all of whom we think can play in the big leagues some day,” Luhnow said, listing Max Stassi, Tyler Heineman, Alfredo Gonzalez, Roberto Pena, Garrett Stubbs and Jamie Ritchie. “The question is, do we have the guy that if we don’t bring Jason back next year can replace Jason as our everyday catcher? And I don’t know the answer to that.”
The Astros’ third-round pick falls at 97th overall.
“It would be great if we came out of the first three rounds with a catcher,”
Luhnow said. “We can’t control what other teams do, so the guys we like might be gone. But certainly, (it’s) something we’ll be keeping a close eye on.”
As they do every year, the Astros held prospect workouts for select players in Los Angeles, Atlanta and Orlando. The final such workout took place Monday afternoon at Minute Maid Park.
Although a Luhnow-led front office has not picked in a slot aside from No. 1 (Carlos Correa in 2012, the since-traded Mark Appel in 2013 and the un-signed Brady Aiken in 2014) or No. 2 (Alex Bregman in 2015) with the Astros, he and his group have experience drafting in the No. 17 range when with the perennially contending Cardinals.
Pete Kozma was the 18th pick in 2007, with Brett Wallace 13th in 2008, Shelby Miller 19th in 2009, and Kolten Wong 22nd in 2011.
“You can’t control who’s there. You just have to control your preparation so that when you have those choices — and you may not know until five minutes before — you’ve got to be prepared to make the right choice,” said Luhnow, who in addition to the ACC tournament has personally scouted select high school targets.
“It doesn’t matter if it’s pick No. 1, 2 or 17. The player you choose should be someone that should help your big league club for not just a cup of coffee but someone that could come up and play for many years. That’s what you hope for.”