UT affirmative action ruling may come today

The U.S. Supreme Court may rule as soon as Thursday on a years-long legal fight over the University of Texas at Austin’s use of race in admissions. It’s a case that could have broad implications for affirmative action nationwide, but several experts say that’s unlikely.

UT considers race as a factor for roughly 25 percent of student applicants who are not admitted under a state law that grants automatic admission up to the top 10 percent of students of a high school’s graduating class.

Abigail Fisher, a white applicant from Sugar Land whose grades did not put her at the very top of her class, sued UT after she was denied admission in 2008. Fisher claims UT admitted minority students with lower grades than hers.

The case has drawn the eyes of higher education leaders across the nation, fearful that the high court could strike a blow to affirmative action policies. The court’s ruling is expected this month before its current session ends. But experts said this week a more narrow ruling from the high court is likely. Only seven justices will weigh in on the case, and the court has been reluctant to issue broad rulings after Justice Antonin Scalia died in February.

“I wouldn’t expect it to make a bold ideological ruling,” said Paul Brace, a political scientist at Rice University.

The smaller makeup of the court is unique to the case and will be key to any outcome. Justice Elena Kagan, an expected would-be vote for UT, recused herself because she worked on the case as solicitor general. Because of that, when the case was argued before the high court late last year, many thought the most UT could hope for was a 4-4 split, which would allow UT’s policy to continue. UT can likely count on just three justices — Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Sonia Sotomayor and Stephen Breyer. Three justices — Clarence Thomas, Chief Justice John Roberts and Samuel Alito — have been critics of affirmative action. Justice Anthony Kennedy will be the swing vote. Though he tends to be more conservative, Kennedy has been “reluctant” to broadly condemn affirmative action in the way that the other conservatives on the court have, said Louis Michael Seidman, a professor of constitutional law at Georgetown University.