As fossil fuels fade, nuclear energy gains ground
While many in Texas and across the U.S. remain skeptical about reducing emissions, some of the planet’s biggest oil producers — Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) — are moving into clean, emissions-free nuclear energy.
Why is the Persian Gulf, of all places, moving away from its foundation products?
For starters, the U.S. shale revolution has shaken OPEC’s supply-side dominance. A debilitating price war since 2014 has knocked out some U.S. shale producers, but North America has become and will remain a “swing producer” rivaling the Saudis. Extracting oil from shale can, and will, ramp up quickly with better prices.
Prospects for global oil demand also spook the Persian Gulf producers. In the past few years, the words “peak oil demand” have morphed from a fringe concept to something like settled fact. Here’s why: During 2005-2014, oil consumption in advanced industrial economies fell by 5 million barrels per day. Technology, lifestyle advances and slowing growth in emerging economies all augur less demand.
Haunted by gloomy supply and demand scenarios, the Saudis announced a “Vision 2030” plan a few days after another portent, Tesla’s new Model 3 electric vehicle, attracted 325,000 pre-orders in the first week of its debut. The electric vehicles have arrived. Soon, better battery technology and improved recharging infrastructure will enmesh with the fully autonomous self-driving car phenomenon.
Transfixed by challenges to oil’s preeminence in road transportation, the Saudi plan envisages, among other things, a move toward cleaner energy. Riyadh has contracted for 41 gigawatts of solar capacity by 2032, one-fifth of the Kingdom’s need. The UAE has also made large solar investments.
Moving past solar, the two OPEC heavyweights want nuclear power. They say it’s safe, and will diversify their economies, give baseload emissions-free power, and create a new skilled workforce. The Saudis will build 16 reactors while the UAE has four advanced reactors under construction, the first entering service next year from a site which has become the world’s largest commercial nuclear construction site. When finished, the reactors will supply 25 percent of UAE demand.
As responding to climate change becomes a more mainstream concern, delivering large-scale emissions-free power will become a pressing necessity. Wind and solar generation can contribute much, but each lacks the all-important element of scale.
There are no easy choices but, as a proven and evolved technology, nuclear energy can be scaled up in relatively short time.
France constructed many dozens of reactors (now providing three-quarters of the country’s electricity) in just 20 years.
Nuclear energy elicits a full spectrum reaction, from hysteria to calmer understanding. Over the next few years, 60 reactors will come on stream worldwide. Popular demand for climate-saving, emissions-free power could cause more to be built.
U.S. utilities are currently building five reactors. China has 20 plants under construction, with its smog-choked cities welcoming plans for dozens more. In Texas, two nuclear plants generate about 10 percent of the state’s electricity.
Though approvals in February enable installation of two new reactors (at the South Texas Project plant, southwest of Houston), the actual go-ahead will take time. Cheap natural gas is dominating the electricity marketplace. Yet many states, including Texas, have also established renewable portfolio standards; why not include emissions-free nuclear energy as well?
We very rarely think of emulating Saudi Arabia, but the Kingdom’s nuclear energy investments should prompt us to rethink our own policy. Resurgent nuclear energy could surprise us, in much the same way the shale revolution transformed the world of oil.
If nuclear energy momentum continues, its reappearance would constitute the only modern energy revolution comparable to shale.
A former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense, Clad is an international energ y consultant based in Washington, D.C.