Big ratings drop isn’t of concern to league
15 percent decline is larger than usual fall in an election year
NFL owners and commissioner Roger Goodell could not pinpoint exactly why television ratings have plummeted but said they expect viewership to bounce back after the election next month.
“It’s something that I don’t think there is a single reason for,” Goodell said Wednesday at the JW Marriott Houston, where the league gathered for two days of meetings. “Everyone has theories.”
The NFL assured owners a ratings dip is normal with a chart showing decreases before the past six elections. Football viewership is down 15 percent this season. News coverage of the particularly salacious 2016 election may have pilfered more football viewers than would be typical. Prime-time games pitted against presidential debates have suffered the most. This drop
is more than the 10 percent loss in 2000 and much more than the 6 percent or less decline prior to the other recent elections.
Still, data about the upcoming election ignores the unprecedented disruption of new media and technology. People are enjoying the convenience of on-demand programming or subscribing less to cable in favor of internet content and smart phone applications.
“We don’t think we’ve lost viewers,” Goodell said. “We’re doing everything, not just to get them to tune in but to get them to stay tuned in. That’s the issue.”
Goodell mentioned the NFL’s new efforts on Snapchat, YouTube, and streaming games live on Yahoo! and Twitter. The NFL did not offer data on how much that content could compensate for the diminished ratings.
Goodell and the few owners who spoke with reporters blurred the line between hubris and naiveté: They said the trend of departing television subscribers does not threaten the future of NFL viewership.
“We recognize that network television is still dominant,” Goodell said. “It’s where the vast majority of our fans view our games. It’s a great experience. The advertising market is incredibly strong.”
“This isn’t my specialty,” Jets owner Woody Johnson admitted despite the league’s presentation. “I think ratings go up and down.”
Johnson then cited ratings dips since 2002. When it was explained that those were minimal compared with the current 15 percent loss, which seems more difficult to recover, Johnson replied: “Then you know more than I do.”
Goodell began his news conference extolling the league for having more close games — those decided by seven points or fewer — than through the first two months of any other season. He described the appeal of “unpredictable outcomes.”
But some owners contradicted this notion by suggesting a lack of competitiveness has deterred viewers this season.
“Any time you see the ratings down it concerns you a little bit, but it’s way too early to draw any definitive conclusions,” Giants owner John Mara said. “The election is certainly a factor. Some of the matchups haven’t been great. Some of the games, including ours, haven’t been as competitive as we would’ve liked.”
The Texans game against the Colts wasn’t up against any election coverage but was still the lowest watched Sunday night game since 2011.
“You’ve just seen a few weeks and a lot of that depends on how the competition was on the night of the game,” Texans owner Bob McNair said. “That varies from week to week. I’m not concerned about it at this point.”
McNair explained that NFL ratings are stronger than those for most of the original programing on network television. The Texans-Colts game, for example, was the most watched show that night (13.6 million viewers) and easily beat the Cubs-Dodgers baseball playoff game (7.2 million).
“We’re well ahead of anything else,” he said. “The networks realize the NFL, that’s what brings people out and it’s one way to covet a mass audience. Digital is growing and we’re growing with it. Television still is dominant compared to the digital viewership.”