UH poll: Dems rise in races in county

A new survey released Thursday by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs shows Democratic challengers for countywide office rising sharply against Republican incumbents.

It also showed Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton with a seven-point lead over Republican Donald Trump, which Hobby research associate and poll author Bob Stein called “the biggest lead I’ve ever seen a Democratic presidential candidate have in the 37 years I’ve been polling in Houston.”

The poll, a telephone survey of 400 registered Harris County voters, showed Democratic challenger Kim Ogg ahead of incumbent Republican Devon Anderson by seven points, 40 percent to 33 percent.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.

The poll also showed Ed Gonzalez, the Democratic candidate for Harris County sheriff, in a virtual tie with Republican incumbent Ron Hickman.

Stein, who also teaches political science at Rice University, said the new poll suggests an aging cohort of mostly Anglo voters is dying off. Behind it, a more diverse, particularly Hispanic cohort was reaching the age when people settle down, pay more attention to civic issues and become more expected to vote.

Census figures published this year named Houston the nation’s second fastest-growing city, with Hispanics, who have outnumbered Anglos since 2007, the fastest growing demographic block. Figures from the Harris County clerk show that registered voters with Spanish surnames increased 22 percent between 2012 and 2016, while voters with non-Hispanic surnames increased 10 percent.

Stein said the Democratic surge suggests Republicans unhappy with their presidential candidate will stay home on Election Day.

The poll found Clinton held a 12-point lead among voters who considered themselves certain to vote.

“Usually the Republicans are more motivated, more likely to show up, and the Democrats are a little less enthused,” he said. “If you’re a Democrat, this is a hopeful sign.”