If an ace is too costly, then 2 bats may suffice
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — Acquiring a top-of-the-rotation starter to pair with Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers is the most obvious way the Astros can improve their roster for 2017. Their rotation ERA of 4.37 ranked 15th in the majors last season, the definition of mediocrity.
Yet market conditions make it far from a slam dunk Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow will find a way to upgrade his starting pitching this winter. The dearth of options available via free agency leaves a trade as the optimal means of acquisition. But if Luhnow balked at the prices on Aug. 1, what’s to say his mindset will change this winter?
The market landscape is not favorable to teams one front-line starter away from a championship-caliber rotation. If unwilling to meet the exorbitant
demands to acquire Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Chris Archer or Sonny Gray, the Astros might go the opposite route and add two impact position players instead.
Essentially, the Astros would try to alleviate their starting pitching concerns by attempting to vastly improve an offense that scored the 15th-most runs in the majors in 2016. Full big league seasons from Alex Bregman and Yulieski Gurriel portend more lineup production as is.
“The reality is we have enough guys to fill out a rotation. Can we improve the quality overall? Yes, I would like to do that,” Luhnow said this week at MLB’s annual GM meetings, which concluded Thursday. “But it’s going to depend what the opportunity cost of doing that is and what the alternatives are.”
Not keen on parting with Bregman and prospects in a trade for a pitcher, the Astros might deem beefing up their offense as the best alternative. This could mean investing legitimate money or prospects to obtain upgrades in the outfield and at either catcher or first base.
Welcome back, Beltran?
Although the Astros seem unlikely to be in the running for Yoenis Cespedes, both Carlos Beltran and Josh Reddick are realistic options for the outfield. A reunion with the 39-year-old Beltran is an especially intriguing idea given he switch-hits, could split time between a corner outfield spot and designated hitter and would provide veteran presence to a team that lacks it.
At first base, the top option is free agent Edwin Encarnacion, whom the Astros surely like but probably won’t be willing to pay the $100 million or more it should take to sign the 33-year-old slugger. Mike Napoli, another free agent, would come cheaper on a shorter-term deal and also qualify as a veteran presence. A reunion with Luis Valbuena to play first base is not out of the question.
Brian McCann of the New York Yankees may be the most ideal catching option available to the Astros, but nothing sounded imminent on the trade front as of Thursday afternoon. McCann has a full no-trade clause, is owed $17 million in each of the next two seasons and would require prospects for the Astros to land him.
McCann is expendable
McCann is expendable to the Yankees because of last season’s emergence of rookie sensation Gary Sanchez, but even at 33, he is still a productive everyday catcher. McCann also fits the righthanded-heavy Astros’ need for a lefthanded hitter and veteran presence.
But given the weak catching market, the Astros have competition for McCann.
“It’s hard to predict if I’ll get to the point where I’m comfortable (with a trade),” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said. “Could that happen quick? I guess it could. But it also might not happen at all. … A lot of the teams are the same teams that talked to me in the summer, and I never presented anything to his agent (B.B. Abbott) for Mac to consider, because I wasn’t feeling it. So we’ll see if that changes here in the wintertime.
“But on my end, I’ve got to be comfortable first and then see what my owner’s temperature is on that. And then if all those things line up, we’d be in a position to share (a proposal) with Brian McCann, who will have the final say.”
Matt Wieters and Wilson Ramos are the best free-agent catching options, but there has been little to suggest the Astros expect to be players for either. If they’re unable to land McCann, perhaps another trade candidate emerges.
At this juncture of the offseason, the possibilities are countless. Failing to address the rotation would leave the Astros with a huge question mark for 2017, especially with Keuchel and McCullers coming off injuries. But in a seller’s market for starting pitching, there is a scenario in which they conclude acquiring two bats as more cost-effective than a blockbuster trade for one arm.