Economy affected by millennials taking on high student debt
High student debt, stagnant wages and tight credit requirements are keeping millennials from buying homes and starting families, according to Fitch Ratings. They have their elders to blame. Millennials have incurred a record level of student debt only to earn wages that are below inflation-adjusted averages, Fitch’s Macro Credit Research found. This combination keeps members of this generation from purchasing homes, slowing down U.S. economic growth.
Part of the problem are stricter mortgage lending standards that have led to a dramatic drop in home ownership levels since the Great Recession of 2007. Home ownership among Americans under the age of 35 is down to 34 percent in 2016 from 41 percent in 2000, according to U.S. Census data.
“Home ownership has long been a key vehicle for lifetime wealth creation and a major driver of the economic cycle and consumption in the U.S.,” Fitch researchers wrote. “If this were to change, even marginally, it could have significant long-term effects on the economy.”
Under current lending standards, the median student loan payment of $203 translates into $45,000 less in mortgage loan capacity, Fitch calculated. That can have a cascading effect across the economy as the baby boomers and their heirs find fewer qualified buyers for their homes.
“Broadly, this could be a net negative for consumption, which in turn may be a factor limiting the structural economic growth rate of the U.S.,” Fitch reported. “It also could exacerbate changes in spending away from housing-based durable goods to services and leisure.”
So why have millennials run up such a huge amount of debt? Because older generations have slashed state support for colleges and universities compared to when they went to school.
For example, in 1987 Texas taxpayers paid 55.8 of the revenue at the University of Houston. By 2012, the state paid 16.9 percent, according to The Chronicle of Higher Education. Funding for Texas A&M dropped to 32.5 percent from 49.4 percent.
That forced schools to raise tuition rates, and left parents and students to cover the funding cuts. Average student debt at college graduation grew by 56 percent, to $28,950 in 2014 from $18,550 in 2004, according to the Institute for College Access and Success, a nonprofit focused on expanding access to higher education.
The Greatest Generation made sure the state invested in higher education for baby boomers, but when they came to power, baby boomers cut taxes on themselves and stuck millennials with taking on debt.
According to Fitch, that costshifting is coming home to roost in slower economic growth as millennials enter their high-spending years and don’t have disposable income.
This is how income inequality affects all of us eventually, no matter our age or income.