Perception may be misguided, but numbers don’t lie: AFC South ranks near bottom
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — The AFC South has an inferiority complex. Most think the division’s reputation as the worst in the NFL is well-deserved, but the four head coaches disagree. Bill O’Brien (Texans), Chuck Pagano (Indianapolis), Doug Marrone ( Jacksonville) and Mike Mularkey (Tennessee) are coaching with a chip on their shoulders.
“I think any time anybody talks negatively about your team or your division, you’ve got something to prove,” Pagano said this week at the NFL meetings. “It’s great motivation.”
The AFC South teams are hoping that additions made in free agency and picks that will be made in the draft will help the division improve and combine for at least 30 victories for the first time since 2012.
“We take shots all the time about how weak the division is,” Pagano said. “I don’t know why that’s out there.”
There’s no marquee team in the division. Indianapolis hasn’t been to a Super Bowl since 2009, when Peyton Manning was the quarterback. Tennessee hasn’t played for the Lombardi Trophy since the 1999 season. The Texans and Jacksonville haven’t reached a Super Bowl.
The Texans have ruled the AFC South for the past two years, winning back-to-back division titles with 9-7 records. They’ve won the division four of the last six years.
Since O’Brien became the Texans’ coach in 2014, they’ve dominated the division. O’Brien has a 14-4 record against AFC South teams.
“I’m not sure about the word dominating,” O’Brien said. “We’ve done a decent job.”
O’Brien is 6-0 against Jacksonville, 5-1 against Tennessee and 3-3 against Indianapolis.
“I think one of the things that’s key for us is our home crowd, our home field,” he said. “We’re pretty good at home. We have great fans. We have
a home-field advantage, and that’s a huge key to being successful.”
O’Brien is 7-2 against AFC South teams at NRG Stadium.
Last season, Tennessee’s 9-7 record tied the Texans. The Colts finished 8-8 and the Jaguars 3-13.
Not the worst
The AFC South finished 2016 with 29 victories. The NFC West (23) and AFC North (26) won fewer games.
“The division’s better than a lot of people think,” said Mularkey, who’s in his second full season. “I think if you ask the teams that play us, they’ll tell you how tough our division is and how hard it is to win.
“I think each team’s improved.”
If the Texans are able to acquire quarterback Tony Romo, they’ll be favored to win the division for a third consecutive year. If they don’t, the Titans could be the sexy pick to dethrone the Texans.
“If you look at the talent, it’s pretty easy to see it’s a tough division,” said Pagano, who has the best quarterback in Andrew Luck. “The talent level on all four teams is getting better. And it’s a very, very competitive division.”
Jaguars on the rise?
If a division is only as good as its worst teams, the AFC South could be vastly improved. The team that’s made the most impressive moves in free agency is Jacksonville.
The Jaguars have bolstered their defense by signing cornerback A.J. Bouye, end Calais Campbell and safety Barry Church.
“All I know is that between Doug Marrone and Tom Coughlin, I will tell you that the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to be a very, very good team, a very wellcoached team, a tough team,” O’Brien said.
Jacksonville is Marrone’s second head coaching job. After guiding Buffalo to a 9-7 record, he walked away when the Bills were sold. He was the Jaguars’ interim coach for the last two games in 2016 after Gus Bradley was fired.
“Once I got the job, I started to really look at the division as a whole,” Marrone said. “The division is, obviously, getting better. It’s very competitive from a coaching standpoint.
“It’s funny. We (coaches) know each other well. There’s a lot of respect for each other. Obviously, it’s a very competitive environment.”
When he was in charge at Buffalo, Marrone played against AFC South teams.
“In the past, people have said, ‘It’s a poor division’ and things of that nature,” he said. “Any one of us can go into their place, or they can come into our place, and it’s going to be a battle.
“We’ll be judged by how we do when we go outside the division. I have a lot of respect for all the other teams.”
There’s no doubt the AFC South improved last season. The 29 victories were the most since 2012, when the Texans won the division with a 12-4 record and the division’s overall record was 31-33.
Texans feeling the heat?
Based on moves made in free agency by Jacksonville and Tennessee and the addition of new Colts’ general manager Chris Ballard, who’s regarded as a terrific personnel man, the division should be closing in on the Texans.
Like the Jaguars, the Titans and Colts have used free agency to improve their defense.
Tennessee signed cornerback Logan Ryan, safety Johnathan Cyprien and tackle Sylvester Williams.
Indianapolis signed outside linebacker John Simon, outside linebacker Jabaal Sheard, end Margus Hunt and tackle Al Woods.
The Texans are the only team that hasn’t signed a free agent from another team. They lost Bouye, Simon, safety Quintin Demps, safety Don Jones and guard Oday Aboushi.
“Every team has their own way of doing things,” O’Brien said. “To this point, Tennessee, Jacksonville and Indianapolis have added players. They’ve lost players, too.
“Everybody’s done some things to improve their team. We’re doing things to improve our team.”
The Texans traded quarterback Brock Osweiler, a second-round draft choice in 2018 and a sixthround pick this year to Cleveland for a fourth-round pick this year. They engineered the trade to get rid of Osweiler’s $16 million guaranteed contract this year, and they picked up $10 million in cap space.
O’Brien has made changes on his coaching staff. He promoted linebackers coach Mike Vrabel to defensive coordinator and receivers coach Sean Ryan to quarterbacks coach. He hired Wes Welker to work with receivers and special teams.
By the time training camp arrives in late July, the Texans will have signed some veteran free agents to go with draft choices and undrafted prospects.
“There’s still a lot of time left,” O’Brien said. “It’s a fluid process. It takes a lot of time to put a team together.”
Over the past five years, the AFC South has won 134 games, the fewest of any division in the league. The next-closest is the NFC South with 156.
“First of all, it’s very difficult to win one game in the NFL,” O’Brien said. “I don’t care who you play. It’s very challenging.
“Our division has very challenging games to prepare for and very challenging games to play.”
But the AFC South still won’t get the respect the coaches think it deserves until its teams win nondivisional games and seriously compete for Super Bowls.