Plan B means pursuing those next-best players
The Rockets’ Plan A — whether categorized as a dream, a goal or something in between — is well-known. They will go after the biggest fish in the free-agency pond not certain to return to the Golden State Warriors.
They almost always start free agency this way, unconcerned with their free-agent pursuit batting average.
The top targets are equally well-known, with the Los Angeles Clippers’ Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, the Atlanta Hawks’ Paul Millsap and the Toronto Raptors’ Kyle Lowry their most likely targets. (Utah’s Gordon Hayward seems more likely to return to the Jazz or bolt for Boston or Miami.)
Plan B, however, is not likely to be found in the next names on the free-agency list.
To chase the top free agents, the Rockets would have to move salary. They don’t have deadweight contracts to move with a sweetener. To clear cap room,
they would have to move players they still value. They would do that for the top prospects; they won’t for the next-best players.
If the Rockets don’t pull off the grander plan of landing a top free agent, with the cap-clearing moves it would take, they are more likely to operate as a team above the cap. They can consider themselves close to $10 million under the cap, minus cap holds and non-guaranteed contracts. But by acting as if they are over the cap, they can shop with the $8.4 million mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception of $3.29 million.
In the current NBA economy, those exceptions — while worth more than the Rockets’ likely cap space — would have the team looking for relative bargains. There is a sense that NBA teams will not be as willing to overspend as last season when inspired by the sudden cap spike. More likely, not as many teams will go on a spending spree, but plenty still will.
With that in mind, the bulk of players who will be offered mid-level money will find much more. But in the tradition of Nene or David West, a few will come at a bargain price in the name of a fit or potential team success.
A look at some players to watch after the headliners (in alphabetical order):
Bogdan Bogdanovic, F
An outstanding shooter who is not much of a defender, but not helpless either, Bogdanovic did not quite work out in Washington but could be up for another try.
Omri Casspi, F
Casspi does enough things well to be a useful reserve for strong teams, but after several moves likely will not want a stopgap contract.
Dewayne Dedmon, C
An outstanding and versatile defensive center, he could be next in a line of San Antonio Spurs backup centers to cash in elsewhere.
Rudy Gay, F
Coming off a major injury, it is difficult to predict the market for Gay or his goals in free agency, but he might be able to rebuild his value in the right situation.
Jerami Grant, G/F
A good athlete with a defiant attitude on the floor, Grant improved as a shooter and could have more room to grow.
Tim Hardaway Jr., G
An instant-offense reserve, Hardaway could fit with the Hawks’ long-term goals.
Ersan Ilyasova, F
A good range-shooting four, Ilyasova has improved as a rebounder and might not fit in the Hawks’ retooling.
Kyle Korver, F
Still an elite 3-point shooter, Korver could be interesting to any 3-happy team (which is nearly all of them). The Cleveland Cavaliers have Bird rights and might need to give the fit more time.
David Lee, F
Lee did not change in any significant way with the Spurs, still excelling as a finisher while limited defensively, but he showed he can help a winner.
Alex Len, C
Len is so young, at just 24, a team could hope his tools allow him to develop into a more reliable reserve, if the price is right.
Luc Mbah a Moute, F
Still a strong 3-and-D small forward, Mbah a Moute can produce from the corners if he can find a situation as strong as he has with the Clippers.
C.J. Miles, F
A strong shooter and underrated defender, Miles’ departure could be part of the Indiana Pacers’ retooling. But at 30, he might have to grab the best contract he can while he can.
Mike Muscala, F
A range-shooting big man can usually expect his phone to ring in July, but Muscala is relatively limited.
Nene, C
Nene was a bargain at $2.9 million last season, but it might pay off for him after he demonstrated strong play and improved durability with the Rockets.
Patrick Patterson, F
The former Rockets draft pick found a niche in Toronto, but the Raptors’ priorities will be Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka.
Willie Reed, C
A solid defensive center, Reed had a limited role in Miami’s turnaround, but he could still fit with the Heat depending on how bigger plans go.
P.J. Tucker, F
For a 3-and-D guy, he is not quite a stopper or a knock-down shooter, but his toughness and attitude are truly phenomenal.