A hot Texas wind carries an upside

In his quest for predictability, a meteorologist finds that warmer air can lead to more power generation

TEXAS is redefining wind — transforming it from a fickle energy resource into something that power companies and utilities might even call reliable.

At least, that was meteorologist Chris Coleman’s goal when he created a long-term forecast for wind in Texas, an experiment in connecting seemingly erratic winds to predictable weather patterns, with a goal of making it easier for the state’s power grid manager to plan for wind-generated electricity coming onto wholesale markets.

In looking for predictability, however, Coleman’s research made a surprising discovery. His study found that hotter weather can lead to more wind in West Texas, a finding that contradicts conventional wisdom, but presents an auspicious sign for both the part of the state producing the most wind energy and consumers, who may end up with lower prices.

“More times than not, if it’s really hot, we have a lot of wind,” Coleman said.

If Coleman’s research holds up, and better forecasting allows the Electric Reliability Council of Texas to bring more of this wind into the power mix, it would relieve some of the pressure on the Texas grid, which is most desperate for electricity when temperatures peak in the summer months. Power prices often spike during hot summer afternoons, but the

addition of low-cost wind energy could smooth out those spikes and reduce the need for higher-cost electricity from coal and nuclear power plants.

That could eventually translate into savings on customer utility bills. At the same time, it could add to the squeeze on power generators, which have struggled in recent years as low electricity prices pinched profits. ERCOT, which oversees most of the state’s power grid, has cautioned these companies that they should expect to run their plants less in the coming years as Texas generates more wind power.

Texas has the highest wind power capacity in the country, but ERCOT must scramble to match supply with demand because of wind’s intermittent nature. ERCOT contracts with a company to provide a week-by-week wind forecast, but Coleman, the ERCOT meteorologist, wanted to try to forecast wind gusts the way he projects seasonal temperatures and long-term weather patterns.

By looking at historical data, Coleman found that hotter temperatures in West Texas, when accompanied by cooler air to the northwest and high pressure to the east, produce more wind. When those conditions occurred last year, they produced winds that broke records in July and August, Coleman said.

As predicting surges of wind power becomes easier, ERCOT can ideally rely on cheaper wind power instead of turning to more expensive power plants during the height of summer. But in the meantime, while Coleman is still experimenting with the forecast, ERCOT will use it to help schedule power plant outages for when it can expect surges of wind power to close the gap, he said.

Spencer Platt / Getty Images file Turbines dominate the landscape at a wind farm in Colorado City, Texas. The state leads the U.S. in wind capacity.

Houston Chronicle file Wind farms like this one in the Fort Stockton area help give Texas the highest wind power capacity in the nation. Matching the intermittent wind supply with demand can be tricky.