POLITICAL EARTHQUAKE:
Insiders express shock, say more changes in store
AUSTIN — An earthshattering event. A huge game-changer. The death knell for centrist Republicans in Texas.
Without exception, the community of political insiders who make Texas politics their business reacted with shock and surprise Wednesday after House Speaker Joe Straus announced he will not seek re-election to his current post in 2019 — setting up the first open race for speaker since 1993 and likely upending state politics for years to come.
“It’s huge, the biggest political change we’ve seen in years,” said veteran state Sen. John Whitmire, a Houston Democrat and one of the longest-serving lawmakers at the state Capitol. “This ensures that politics in the House and in the state generally will move in a more partisan direction —
a conservative Republican direction.”
He and more than a dozen other senators and House members predicted that a series of aftershocks from the decision will include more retirements of senior House members and Straus lieutenants — starting with key confidant Byron Cook, R-Corsicana, who immediately announced he will retire at the end of his current term.
Nonetheless, one of them, state Rep. Sarah Davis of Houston, quickly announced on Twitter that she was staying put. “Not resigning,” she tweeted with a photo of an invite for her upcoming reelection fundraiser.
It also likely will mean that the GOP-majority House will change its rules to allow the Republicans to choose the next speaker, rather than by an open vote of all members — as the Texas Republican party has suggested in its platform. An open vote gives a bigger voice to Democrats.
With moderate Straus gone, most expect that conservative Republicans will gain an upper hand in the House when the Legislature convenes again in January 2019, meaning that a number of controversial bills that he blocked from being passed — from the lightning-rod bathroom bill to a ban on union dues being deducted from government paychecks to property tax reform — will get a second life and probably pass.
Politically, Straus’ departure as a more centrist leader likely will complete a shift in Texas power that began 30 years ago. Then, Democrats were in solid control, but saw their power slip, resulting in bipartisan control as Republicans gained in membership.
The next phase of the shift saw more moderate Republicans in control with Democratic support. And now, experts expect, Texas is poised to see conservative Republicans gain total control.
With hard-right conservatives Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick in the top state elective offices, conservative Republicans moved quickly Wednesday to fill the upcoming power void left by Straus’ departure. Democrats, more-moderate Republicans and groups that had supported Straus wondered aloud about Texas’ political future.
“Moderate and even traditional conservative Texas Republican officeholders are moving from endangered to extinct,” said Democratic consultant Matt Angle. “Texas officeholders who continue to run and serve as Republicans either fully embrace the destructive backward-looking views of their party’s leadership or they cower in fear of it.”
‘The battle for Texas’
Within hours, anti-Straus groups were calling for conservative GOP voters to purge all moderate Republicans from all leadership positions in the House in upcoming primaries — much the same way as hard-right Republicans, including President Donald Trump (who was in Dallas on Wednesday for a fundraiser), are pushing to run moderates out of Congress.
“We need to make sure that none of the cronies who enabled Straus’ regime grab the reins of power,” said Michael Quinn Sullivan, president of the conservative Empower Texans group that has been pushing for Straus’ ouster for several years.
“There are too many ‘Republican’ sycophants who enabled Straus’ assault on liberty-focused, pro-taxpayer reforms, and they won’t easily give up the control. … With your help, we can retire many more in March 2018,” he said in an email to supporters after the speaker’s announcement.
“Straus’ abrupt departure is a signal that the battle for Texas is going to get hotter.”
For their part, both Abbott and Patrick issued statements wishing Straus well in his future endeavors. Their supporters were more blunt: Good riddance.
From most everyone else came warnings about what could come once Straus is gone.
“Joe Straus’ departure mirrors a trend of people giving up on the fringe policies of Texas Republicans,” said Ed Espinoza, executive director of Progress Texas, an affiliate of the state Democratic Party.
“Voters should know that a new Republican speaker will put (Patrick’s) wildly extreme proposals like bathroom bills and school vouchers back on the table and back in jeopardy of becoming law.”
The powerful Texas Association of Business, a longtime political ally of Republicans that had publicly split with Abbott and Patrick and sided with Straus over the bathroom bill, expressed remorse over his departure. Jeff Moseley, the organization’s CEO, said it remained “committed to finding and supporting more candidates like Speaker Straus.”
‘No counter-balance’
For many experts, though, the departure was a clear signal for the GOP.
“This is the death knell for moderate Republicans in Texas,” said Mark Jones, a Rice University political scientist who has studied Texas’ political swing to the right in recent years. “Straus was the last centrist, and the business community and other moderate Republicans have relied on him. He will be replaced by someone much more conservative, without a doubt.
“This will demoralize many of Straus’ allies who may not want to go back to a House where they will longer be as influential. I think you’ll see others retire.”
While political consultants, lawmakers and and political scientists suggested that the further swing to the right for Texas’ politics could drive many moderate Republicans to vote for Democrats, others disagreed.
“I don’t see too many Bernie Sanders Democrats welcoming Republican moderates to their party,” said Round Rock businesswoman Kathryn Connelly, a selfdescribed moderate Republican who thinks the party in Texas has gone too far right.
“A lot of us may just drop out for a while. Without Straus, who I disagreed with on a number of issues, there will be no counter-balance at the Capitol. Attila the Hun and friends will be in total control, at least until Texans get sick of this brand of politics.”
Even so, Jordan Berry, a Republican consultant in Austin who represents conservative Republicans, said he was not surprised by Straus’ departure, after such public sparring with Abbott and Patrick.
“It will mean Republicans will choose someone in their caucus as the next speaker,” he said, “and that other issues that have not passed will pass.”
“This is the death knell for moderate Republicans in Texas.” Mark Jones, Rice University political scientist