It’s anybody’s guess where numbers fall
Look no further than Tomball for evidence of the Houston area’s boomtown status.
It’s where the school district’s student population is expected to jump from 14,092 to 19,288 by 2022 — one reason why the town boasts two high schools now.
It’s also why the “blue side” of Tomball might be calling Class 6A home before long.
Filled with fresh development and resting just inside the Grand Parkway, six-year-old Tomball Memorial will have a better idea of its future status after Snapshot Day on Friday.
For those deeply rooted in biennial realignment, this is an unofficial holiday of the most unique kind on the Texas high school football calendar.
It’s the day schools report the enrollment numbers to the University Interscholastic League that will determine which go to new classifications and districts or stay put once February’s district realignment is unveiled. Possible twist to rivalry
Of course, it’s a waiting game after the numbers are turned in. The next date circled on the calendar is when the UIL releases the cutoff numbers between each classification sometime in November.
Any school with 2,150 students or more made 6A in 2016 and 1,100-2,149 made 5A.
Tomball Memorial missed Class 6A by 131 students in 2016 but could report anywhere from 2,100 to 2,200 on Friday, meaning the school’s chances of competing in the state’s highest classification next year won’t be far off.
It won’t be a surprise if it happens considering the district has prepared for its growth, but first-year Tomball Memorial football coach Sam Parker will do what most coaches and officials try to do — turn in the number and worry when it’s time to worry.
“If you start thinking about it, you get sucked into trying to figure out ‘OK, well the number on a certain year was this number and in the next realignment it went up by this amount of students. So, we’re guessing it’s going to up by that number of students,’ ” Parker said. “Oh, my goodness. Where does it end?
“Wherever they draw the line, they draw the line.”
A jump up to 6A is interesting for Tomball Memorial considering its relationship with rival and District 20-5A brethren Tomball, which likely will stay in 5A. The two football programs meet in the final regular-season game every year, giving the town a similar tradition seen in Pearland, Magnolia and New Caney.
However, this could be the first year the TomballTomball Memorial game has playoff implications. Tomball Memorial’s possible move up likely turns it into an early-season non-district contest.
Montgomery is one of the Houston-area schools expecting a drop to 5A.
Montgomery football coach John Bolfing is unsure what the exact enrollment number will be on Snapshot Day, but the addition of Lake Creek High School in Montgomery won’t keep the Bears in 6A.
He expects Montgomery to land in 5A Division I, and the difference between that and where the Bears currently reside is minute.
“There’s a lot of good 5A schools around here,” Bolfing said. “So, depending on where they put us, there may not be a whole lot of difference. We could be over there with College Station and A&M Consolidated and those folks. Those guys play a lot of 6A schools and compete really, really well.” ‘Anything can happen’
That’s the other statewide twist to this Snapshot Day and February’s realignment. Class 5A is splitting into two divisions before the postseason like the four classifications below it. It’ll change the landscape. For example, Barbers Hill coach Tom Westerberg thinks one possibility could have his Eagles sharing a district with schools in the Golden Triangle.
Fort Bend Marshall coach James Williams already suspects his school will be nestled in 5A Division II with a Snapshot Day number of approximately 1,230.
Williams has been through this enough to know, once the numbers are turned in, don’t try to predict the UIL’s next move.
“For the 2012 or ’13 season, we never would’ve thought we’d end up in a district with Tomball,” Williams said. “That’s an example that anything can happen.”