Democrats giddy about 1 million primary turnout, but numbers show Republican Party still cast more ballots

AUSTIN — Democrats got the turnout boost they were hoping for in Tuesday’s primaries, topping the million-vote mark for the first time since 2002.

While Democratic candidates and party officials were jubilant Wednesday, Republicans were quick to provide a reality check: The GOP still dominated turnout, topping 1.5 million.

Nearly 700,000 of those Republican votes were cast on election day.

The turnout patterns suggest that the “blue wave” Democrats hope will sweep Republicans out of office remains a mirage, at least for now, analysts said. Yet lessons learned from the runoff will affect the remainder of Campaign 2018.

That starts with the two Democrats running for governor: Former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez and Houston entrepreneur Andrew White, who will face each other in a May 22 runoff.

“It’s going to be a com-

petition about who can marshal their limited resources better,” said Brian Smith, a political science professor at St. Edwards University in Austin with expertise in voting patterns. “The questions are whether Valdez can expand beyond her base in the primary, and whether White can convince the voters who didn’t vote for him in the primary to do so in a runoff where the turnout is always much less.”

Bottom line: Despite Democrats’ enthusiasm, Republicans still cast more ballots — by almost a half-million votes — on Tuesday and almost certainly will in the November general election.

Happy for enthusiasm

Democrats have not won a statewide office in Texas in 24 years — a record drought for the party nationwide. Still, state party chair Gilberto Hinojosa, pointing to Tuesday’s strong Democratic turnout, predicted that “grassroots energy and enthusiasm” would ensure a strong showing in November.

“Trump Republicans should be terrified,” he said, referring to Texas’ top GOP leaders who have all steadfastly maintained their support of the controversial president who won Texas in 2016.

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick on Wednesday publicly pushed back against that assertion, saying the “so-called ‘blue wave’” that Democrats had been predicting for months “never made landfall.”

“We have been hearing for weeks in Texas and across the country that a great ‘blue wave’ was coming to Texas,” Patrick said. “We have been assaulted with predictions that our great state is trending Democrat. … Texas is a bright red state with an engaged conservative majority who are committed to keeping Texas on a conservative path.”

In the governor’s race, incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott remains confident after winning the GOP nomination for re-election by 90 percent Tuesday over two little-known challengers, he insists nothing can be left to chance with the increased Democrats’ turnout.

“Now we have our work cut out for us to keep Texas in Reprimary publican hands,” he said in a FacebookLive video to supporters. He noted “there are more Republican votes than Democrat votes” if GOP voters turn out.

Tallies from the Tuesday primary show Valdez ran strong in her hometown of Dallas, and in traditional Democratic strongholds in San Antonio, Austin and South Texas. White won in Houston and in surrounding counties, and in a number of rural counties where Democrats held sway years ago when they still held statewide office.

Low turnout persists

Statewide, turnout among Democrats was just over 6 percent and about 10 percent for Republicans — highlighting an historical problem for both parties.

That could make a difference in the runoff because in a number of counties, the margin between the two remaining Democratic gubernatorial candidates in actual votes is relatively close — 2,300 in Galveston, 108 in Bowie County in far northeast Texas and 54 in Blanco County in Central Texas. In West Texas’ Borden County, each of them got one vote — even though 486 Democrats are registered there — attesting to just how few Democrats there are in some places.

“Both need to get their messages out, because the general rule is that only about half of the people who voted in the primary will come back and vote in the runoff,” said Mark Jones, a Rice University political science professor. “The runoff probably favors Valdez because runoff voters tend to be the real die-hards. White needs to convince Democrats who voted for her in the that he is the better candidate to beat Abbott in November.”

According to state voting records, more than 650,000 Texans took advantage of early voting to cast their ballots in the 10 largest counties. More than 280,000 of those were Democrats, and 283,000 were Republicans. That was a change over four years ago, when Republicans outvoted Democrats in early balloting.

That trend may not hold true in a runoff, officials say, because there will be fewer races and lower turnout, even though Democratic party officials insisted Wednesday that may not hold true since the party’s turnout doubled from 2014 to 2018.

All sides agreed: Both campaigns must raise cash, lots of it and quickly.

Both campaigns launched new fundraising appeals Wednesday.

Valdez said her message “to bring common sense solutions to our great state” was a reason for her primary win, a message that seemed to echo White’s campaign pitch. In his fundraising message, he insisted his campaign “beat every expectation … and we’re not wasting any time gearing up for the May runoff.”

“The statewide name recognition for both of these people is limited, and they have to raise money to effectively campaign,” said Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Dallas’ Southern Methodist University. “White has to raise more money, $2-3 million at least, to win the runoff.”