Deal undone

Withdrawing from Iran treaty undermines U.S. influence, and Houston should worry.

With President Donald Trump’s declared withdrawal on May 8, one nation is now in violation of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, otherwise known as the Iran nuclear deal. America broke its word. We won’t know the full consequences for some time, but things don’t look promising. It is at least possible, as the deal’s critics assert, that this is the last step before the Iranian government collapses and democracy blooms in Tehran. However, critics have made that prediction before, and Iran experts generally agree that the only Iranian beneficiaries of Trump’s decision are the country’s hardliners, the people who want conflict, just as American hardliners do.

Another possibility is that Trump’s decision will put America on course to another gruesome and ill-conceived war in the Middle East.

There are many possibilities. What we know for sure is that America has insulted its closest friends and communicated to friend and foe alike that it cannot be trusted, at a particularly dangerous time. For more than a year, French, German, British and European Union leaders had pleaded with Trump to abide by the terms of the deal. Trump refused.

He has pledged to break the current deal, and seek a better one. But the JCPOA, which used economic sanctions to shutter Iran’s nuclear program, was only viable because the Europeans, Russians and Chinese joined with the United States in sanctioning Iran and worked together as a coordinated bloc. They sacrificed too, and they are unlikely to do so again for a president who just ensured that all their previous sacrifice has been wasted.

At the moment, other signatories of the deal seem inclined to honor the agreement without the United States. The European Union has vowed to help insulate its own companies from punitive U.S. sanctions. Russia and China, who each have their own major beefs with the Trump administration, are highly unlikely to help America out on this issue again. If that holds, the United States will have kicked itself to the curb, left with a diminished reputation and next to no leverage apart from our magnificent stockpile of guided weaponry.

How this self-inflicted wound will play out should have Houstonians deeply concerned. Our city sits at a nexus of oil pipelines and global shipping routes. All of this is built atop a post-war international system that put the United States at its center. This 20th century structure was already beginning to fray, and Trump’s decision only accelerates the process. As this trend continues, don’t be surprised when the U.S. position at the core of the global economy begins to shift, and the port trade that drives Houston’s economic engine begins to wane.

Meanwhile, there’s been a collective cheer from America’s hawks, who seem relieved that things will be getting back to “normal” with regard to our oldest foe in the Middle East region. Trump’s top national security adviser, John Bolton, in particular, seems downright gleeful. But it should trouble all of us that the concept of diplomacy with our enemies has become unthinkable in a way that war is not. It should be the opposite.

When President Richard Nixon opened relations with China in 1972, he did so at a time when the Chinese were providing weapons used to kill American soldiers in Vietnam. And America continued forging arms treaties with the Soviet Union at a time when this country was helping to kill Soviet soldiers in Afghanistan. You make peace with your enemies, the saying goes, not your friends — but this administration has proved it can’t do either.