Early voting slow as GOP, Democrats study runoff trends

AUSTIN — As early voting in the primary runoffs ends Friday, Democrats and Republicans alike are scouring the numbers for patterns and trends they hope will show their candidates have momentum with voters.

By Thursday, turnout remained low in most areas statewide — meaning that without an unlikely surge of last-minute voting, most races will be basically determined by the time polls open Tuesday for election day balloting.

“The numbers so far show that turnout in this runoff will probably be a little low overall — low for the Republicans who don’t have any races in many areas, and a record turnout for the Democrats in some areas where they have high-profile races,” said Mark Jones, a political scientist at Houston’s Rice University.

“On election night, when the early voting totals are released, we should get a clear indication of who will win in most of the races, all but the ones that are very close.”

Democratic and Republican party officials in various areas call it much the same way: Perhaps as many as 1.1 million Texans may vote in the runoff, just about 5 percent of the state’s registered voters.

Most of that will come in Texas’ five largest urban areas — Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, San Antonio and Austin — where the most active runoff races are underway, mostly between progressive and moderate Democrats.

So far just 251,000 Texans have voted early in person or by mail in the primary runoffs in

the state's largest 15 counties. Those counties have 9.9 million registered voters.

Harris County is an example: Democrats will be casting ballots to help decide their party’s nominee for governor, in three congressional districts, in a Texas Senate district and a state House district, along with six other county races. Republicans, by contrast, will be able to vote in two congressional and two judicial districts.

A few strong spots

By Wednesday, the partisan tallies were close: 24,567 Democrats had cast votes by mail and in early ballots, while Republicans had cast 24,154.

The two early voting locations with the most voters were within the 2nd Congressional District, where a Republican primary between Dan Crenshaw and Kevin Roberts is helping drive turnout. More than 1,600 had voted at the Kingwood United Methodist Church and 1,586 had voted at the Champion Forest Baptist Church, according to the state tallies.

The only other voting location with more than 1,500 votes was the Metropolitan Multi Service Center, which is in the 7th Congressional District that features the Democratic runoff battle between Laura Moser and Lizzie Pannell Fletcher.

Most all of the other 43 voting locations had fewer than 700 votes over the first three days.

In Dallas County, where Democrats were the busiest in runoffs, they had cast 17,427 ballots compared to 8,896 for Republicans. In neighboring Tarrant County, where there are more Republican runoffs, GOP early voters outpaced Democrats 13,064 to 9,411.

In Bexar County, a Democratic stronghold in most areas, early-voting Democrats were ahead of Republicans 14,647 to 10,933. And in deep blue Travis County, where most all the runoffs are Democratic, they posted an earmail ly turnout of 14,685 comparted to 3,427 for Republicans.

Richards, Valdez, White

If the runoff turnout was slow, activity in the Democratic gubernatorial race was not on Thursday as Cecile Richards, national president of Planned Parenthood that is supporting former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez, blasted rival Andrew White for his suggestion during a debate that there’s room in her movement for people like him.

White, who says he is personally pro-life but would protect abortion rights if elected governor, had declared during an Austin debate last Friday that Richards said there’s room for people like him in “her movement.”

“Hey @randrewwhite! Rule #1. Don’t speak for someone else, especially a woman you’ve never met or talked to, like me. Rule #2. That’s also why women don’t like politicians telling us what to do with our bodies,” Richards said in a tweet on Thursday that quickly caught fire in Texas’ political community.

White fired back with his own tweet, citing a Richards’ interview on MSNBC: “I was quoting you and agreeing with you in this recent video. (Also, we met a long time ago).”

Democrats’ ad blitz

Also Thursday, after a Dallas newspaper reported White was not spending his accumulated $1 million in campaign donations, questioning whether he realized he would lose the runoff, White announced that he was going up on TV in the Austin market with an ad that will air through Tuesday.

The spot touts White’s rescues of “dozens and dozens” of Houston residents with his small boat during Hurricane Harvey last fall, and pledges that he will “do right for every Texan, no matter what it takes.”

White aides would not provide a cost for the ad buy, which comes after he launched a direct campaign last week in major Texas markets. But Valdez’s campaign message went up Thursday with a reported $77,000 buy of radio ads in Houston, North Texas, Austin, Odessa, Midland and San Angelo.

Both candidates on Thursday were reported campaigning hard in key areas, with White working this week in Houston, Austin, Dallas and possibly San Antonio. Valdez is focusing on Dallas, San Antonio, Austin and other areas in South Texas that she considers key to her victory.

“Both candidates got a late start and are six months behind where they need to be, so getting a clear message out, with very little money, is a key for both of them in these final days before actual voting,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston.