LeBron to Houston? Not likely now
WITH LEBRON JAMES OPTING OUT OF HIS CAVALIERS CONTRACT, THE ROCKETS’ HOPES OF LANDING HIM BECOME SLIM TO ALMOST NONE
Wall Street rings an opening bell. Sprints begin with a blast of a starter’s pistol. The start of the NBA free-agency frenzy once again came with LeBron James becoming the most important domino. • James on Friday alerted the Cleveland Cavaliers of his choice to become a free agent, rather than opting in to the final season of his contract. It’s a move that could have ripple effects far beyond the teams vying to land him, with potential to shift the balance of power of teams hoping to dethrone the champion Golden State Warriors. • The Rockets’ faint hopes of landing James took a severe hit, although they likely knew how long the odds of getting him to join his friend Chris Paul and newly crowned MVP James Harden had become.
The Rockets still could acquire James as a free agent.
But that would require far more complicated and difficult maneuvering than if they could have brought him in the way they did with Paul when Paul opted in to the final season of his Los Angeles Clippers contract to facilitate a trade to the Rockets.
Instead, James — who has been to eight consecutive NBA Finals and has taken three championships since “the Decision” to leave Cleveland in 2010 — can either return to the Cavaliers with a max contract that could be worth $207 million over five years or leave and take a contract that could be worth as much as $152 million over four seasons.
The Rockets can hope to lure him as a free agent, a move that would require a difficult signand-trade agreement or an extensive series of moves to clear cap space that would gut nearly all of the depth of last season’s 65-win team and require that most of the roster be filled with players on minimum contracts.
Because free-agent center Clint Capela has a small cap hold — the amount of money treated as a salary in calculated salary cap commitments — the Rockets could keep Capela, Harden and sign Paul and James under the salary cap, if James were to reach that decision. But because that would dramatically hurt a team he was joining, Friday’s decision is another indication James is unlikely to choose the Rockets.
Even a sign-and-trade deal would make it difficult for the Rockets to build around their stars with the contracts for Paul, James and Harden to top $100 million even before Capela is signed to a contract that would bring the Rockets close to the projected hard cap of roughly $129 million.
The move could be interpreted as a strong sign that if James does not remain in Cleveland he would move to Los Angeles with the Lakers having the cap room to add his max salary, without making other moves, an advantage most other potential suitors do not have.
The Philadelphia 76ers could remain in the hunt with a relatively simple path to maximum contract cap room.
The 76ers are well ahead of the Lakers in their rebuilding, but the Lakers have stepped up efforts to trade for San Antonio Spurs star Kawhi Leonard, a move that would further entice James to join them. The Lakers also could create the room to sign Paul George as a potential star partner for James, since George opted out of his deal with Oklahoma City and expected to consider playing near his hometown.
The Cavaliers don’t need cap room to keep James. But if he had chosen to stay in Cleveland, he could have opted in and gained another season to see how the team around him that underwent so many changes last season might come together or to evaluate another offseason retooling.
His decision-making seems certain to come without the extensive presentations of his previous summers as a free agent.
Players cannot sign until July 6, but the Rockets can begin work on keeping their own free agents — including Capela, Trevor Ariza, Gerald Green, Luc Mbah a Moute and Paul — this weekend.
Unless there is a dramatic and unlikely shift in James’ thinking, the Rockets have enough work to do to keep what they had, with Friday’s James decision sending them in that direction.