Metro’s next step coming into focus
‘Reality check’ in store for transit leaders who envision $35B future
Transit officials have identified $35 billion in light rail, bus rapid transit and various upgrades in Metro’s service area and beyond that, if built, would bring millions of Houstonians access to buses and trains.
What the Metropolitan Transit Authority cannot identify is where that $35 billion would come from, tempering its upcoming regional plan to the $3 billion or so officials hope to have for two decades’ worth of major improvements.
“Be prepared for a significant reality check,” Metro Chairwoman Carrin Patman warned when the topic turned to the agency’s financial footing for major new projects.
Metro still is a year away from unveiling its first regional transportation plan in 15 years. Last week, officials got their first look at both the full list of options for expanded transit in car-crazed Houston and scaled-back plans in line with the agency’s expected revenue.
The full plan — really a wish list — would vastly expand Metro’s transit system across nearly every method of travel. Major investments in the plan would add 100 miles of light rail — five times Houston’s current train system — and 200 miles of two-way HOV lanes, more than doubling the current capacity and making all of the freeways open to HOV travel in both directions, 24 hours a day. Another 90 miles of lane specifically built for bus-only rapid transit service also is included.
To operate that massively upgraded system, Metro would need
an additional 211 light rail vehicles, 448 more buses and hundreds of improved bus stops and transit centers.
The benefits also would be large. Planners believe such an expansion would result in a 460 percent increase in residents living within a half-mile of frequent transit service, with population growth included.
However, the big plan, presented at a Metro board of directors meeting last week, also comes with a cost 12 times what Metro can possibly hope to have to spend.
Metro’s Chief Financial Officer Arthur Smiley said the agency will have between $1 billion and $2.8 billion for projects in the next two decades, based on current assumptions about the region’s sales tax revenues and federal funding for transit. Both revenues and federal obligations, however, are uncertain, particularly when looking further into the future.
Typically, Metro relies on a funding split in which the federal government pays 55 percent of most projects and the transit agency sells bonds for the remaining 45 percent.
Smiley’s calculations include projects already in Metro’s upcoming plans, such as bus purchases for the Uptown bus rapid transit project still under construction, citywide improvements aimed at making bus stops more accessible via sidewalks, and upgrades to parkand-ride lots.
A finalized plan, dubbed MetroNEXT, will not come to the board until mid-2019. Metro could seek voter approval for a first round of projects after that, Patman said. Any additional borrowing by Metro would need voter approval.
Patman began last week’s meeting with an eight-minute disclaimer of the wish list, its financial possibilities and the projects specified. She called it “an ideal of where — with all the money in the world — where we want to be.”
Nothing indicates the full plan ever will be built.
“If we can do that ever, it will be amazing,” Patman said. “If we want to do that, ever.”
Scaling back
Bowing to the realities, Metro staff culled the massive list of projects to those deemed within reach financially at the lower and upper ends of what officials could have to spend. Planners developed the two initial options after dozens of meetings around the Houston area last year, discussions with stakeholders, county and city officials and economic analysis.
“Plan A” would cost at the top end of Metro’s financial ability, around $3 billion. It includes 12 miles of new light rail, primarily extending the Red Line to Bush Intercontinental Airport and the Purple Line to Hobby Airport. Bus rapid transit would come to the Interstate 10 corridor west of downtown Houston and along the Interstate 69 corridor to Westchase. That bus rapid transit would connect to a bus corridor currently under construction in Uptown, along with various bus routes that would be expanded or upgraded.
A second option, “Plan B,” would extend the Red Line about a mile to Tidwell and add bus rapid transit only along I-10, along with some smaller projects. Express bus service would be added between downtown, Greenspoint and Bush Airport, along with a 10 percent increase in bus service.
Board members, while stressing that talks were early, expressed hope for more ambitious projects.
“It seems like it is going to be a very small drop in the bucket of where we want to go,” Metro board member Troi Taylor said.
Many believe a massive investment is needed — and inevitable — in Houston. Moving here at age 12 from Japan after his father retired in 2010, Jordan Riordan, 20, said he was dumbstruck by the lack of transit.
“I think we need a big plan,” Riordan said. “We’re 30 years behind where we need to be, and we keep building roads.”
Steven Green, 56, meanwhile, said any transit should make financial sense. Like the vast majority of Houston area residents, he drives, riding transit “maybe once a year.”
“I don’t want something that’s not being used and paying its fair share,” Green said, acknowledging some subsidy will be necessary.
Most importantly, he said, Houston should have the transit it needs, not the transit a “vocal group” wants, with light rail to all major locations.
Patman cautioned people not to focus on where planners have specified light rail and bus rapid transit on the maps included in the plan. The modes were chosen based on the best options now, but are far from decided.
“This should not be taken necessarily as an endorsement,” she said. “That should not be taken as anything but the most preliminary word on the subject because it is entirely possible new technologies will supplant the modes we have in there today.”
Many bus and rail riders said Metro needs to make commuting more convenient, and in many cases remedy existing issues rather than offer new services.
“They need to spend more on police,” said Ruth GordonSmith, as she waited for a bus after stepping off a train at the Wheeler Transit Center. “If there was police at every (rail) stop, I think more people would ride.”
Whatever version of the plan is finalized and put in front of voters, Patman acknowledged it will have political ramifications as some press for their preferred projects. She noted some projects that already enjoy support are not included for various reasons, notably light rail to Missouri City and an extension of the Green Line light rail in the East End.
Pricey but popular option
When narrowing the list to the Plan A projects, Patman said officials had to choose whether to extend the Green Line or the Purple Line, which is about two miles closer to the airport. East End officials have fought hard to have a Green Line link to Hobby.
Meanwhile, there is support from local, state and federal officials related to light rail to Missouri City, but it remains one of the priciest projects.
In many circumstances, Patman said, whatever is built likely will require support from partners, ranging from management districts to cities or perhaps even private companies that see transit as an investment.
What is almost certain, however, is that more projects will be proposed in the coming months or years. Houston’s population, many coming from areas where public transit is far more robust, likely will demand it, transit officials said.
“Doing nothing is not an option,” board member Sanjay Ramabhadran said.
“We’re 30 years behind where we need to be, and we keep building roads.”
Jordan Riordan, moved here from Japan in 2010