A slight decrease in the waterfowl population won’t hurt Texas hunters.
Populations of some of North America’s diverse waterfowl species took a downturn this year, but the declines aren’t likely to have a significant effect on how many ducks and geese Texas waterfowlers see over their decoys when those birds migrate to wintering areas this autumn and winter.
Data released this week by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Canadian Wildlife Service indicate the population index of ducks in the heart of the birds’ nesting habitat in the north-central U.S. and central Canada declined 17 percent from 2017, and is the lowest overall number in seven years. All but one of the 10 duck species whose breeding populations are counted during the annual May-June aerial survey saw their abundance decline from 2017, with six seeing double-digit drops.
But the overall duck population in the surveyed region, which stretches from South Dakota to the Canadian Arctic and Alaska, remains well above the 60-plus-year average of such indexes and is more than one-third larger than in 1990.
“Yes, the survey indicates duck numbers are down this year from last year. But it’s not anything that’s unexpected or a reason for major concern,” said Kevin Kraai, waterfowl program leader for Texas Parks and Wildlife Department. “Duck populations have been riding a tremendous high for several years. We’re just two years removed from the highest overall population estimate since the surveys began in 1955. And this year’s estimate is the 12th highest on record.”
Of more importance and concern for healthy waterfowl populations, the 2018 survey found the abundance of wetlands in the north-central U.S. and prairie and parkland regions of Canada declined 14 percent from 2017 numbers. That tally is the lowest in more than a decade and falls almost exactly on the 1974-2017 long-term average. Wetland abundance is a major factor in quantifying the health and productivity of waterfowl nesting and brood-rearing habitat.
This year’s duck breeding population survey, which involves trained pilots and observers flying the same routes that have been flown since the survey began 63 years ago and counting wetlands and the ducks on them, produced a breeding duck population index of 41.19 million birds. That represents a 13 percent decline from the 2017 index of 47.26 million birds. (The survey is not held as an exact count. It’s an index that gives waterfowl managers insight into short-term and long-term trends in habitat conditions and populations of individual duck species.)
The survey indicates year-to-year population declines in nine of the 10 duck species whose populations are quantified. But even with those drops, North America’s duck population remains strong.
“Almost all of those species are above their long-term average, some mind-bogglingly so,” Kraai said.
As a whole, the 2018 population index of ducks in the traditional survey area is 17 percent above the 1955-2017 average.
Only one species — wigeon — posted an increase this year. The survey indicated the mediumsize puddle duck’s population index climbed 2 percent from 2017, to 2.8 million, and is 8 percent above the long-term average.
Gadwall saw the largest decline, dropping 31 percent to 2.88 million. But even with the decline, the overall population of “gray ducks,” one of the most commonly taken by Texas waterfowlers, stands a whopping 43 percent above the long-term average.
Northern shoveler, also a primary species encountered by Texas waterfowlers, declined 3 percent from 2017 estimates — 4.2 million from 4.35 million. But the wide-billed ducks’ population has soared over the past two decades and this year is a stunning 62 percent above the longterm average.
The breeding population of blue-winged teal dropped 18 percent from 2017. But the estimated 6.45 million bluewings is almost 30 percent above the long-term average. This is good news for Texas waterfowlers looking ahead to the Sept. 14-30 teal-only season set to give hunters a shot at these early-migrating small ducks. Federal waterfowl management protocols authorize a 16-day September teal-only hunting season when the bluewing breeding population index is 4.7 million or more. A nine-day season is allowed when the bluewing index falls below 4.7 million. The bluewing index is almost 2 million birds above the level that would trigger a shorter teal-only season or lower daily bag limit.
Pintails take a plummet
The same can’t be said for pintails, one of the largest and most coveted ducks wintering in Texas. The pintail population took an 18 percent dive this year, with the index dropping to 2.36 million birds from 2017’s 2.89 million.
That decline will have consequences for Texas waterfowlers. Pintail numbers plunged during the 1970s and have struggled to gain ground since, climbing above their long-term average only once since the 1980s. This year’s population index is 40 percent below that 1955-2017 average.
With the struggling population, federal waterfowl managers have toggled the daily limit of pintails back and forth between one per day and two per day for more than a decade. That daily limit is determined by plugging the previous year’s breeding population into a matrix that takes the breeding population and other factors (estimated annual survival, habitat conditions, harvest, etc.) and yields a decision on a onebird or two-bird daily limit.
For the 2018-19 duck season, which opens in November, Texas hunters will be allowed to take two pintails as part of their six-duck daily limit; that regulation was decided this past autumn and was based on the fairly robust 2017 breeding population index.
With the decline in pintail numbers this year, it’s a cinch the pintail limit will drop back to one per day for the 2019-20 season.
“Unfortunately, that’s something that’s just about guaranteed,” Kraai said of a drop in the pintail limit for 2019-20.
Mallards, North America’s most abundant duck and most popular among a majority of waterfowlers, saw their population index drop 17 percent from 2017, falling to 9.55 million. This year is the first since 2011 mallard numbers have fallen below 10 million.
The breeding population index of scaup — bluebills — declined 9 percent from 2017 and are 20 percent below their long-term average. Scaup and pintails are the only species of the 10 major duck species included in the annual survey whose populations are below their long-term average.
Green-winged teal declined 16 percent from 2017, but remain 42 percent above their long-term average.
The two main diving duck species — redhead and canvasback — declined slightly from 2017, with redhead numbers slipping 10 percent and the canvasback population in the surveyed region falling 6 percent. Both remain significantly above their long-term average, redheads by 38 percent and canvasbacks by 16 percent.
Goose count difficult
have been stable or slightly declining (2-4 percent) the past few years. But those “light” geese have seen their populations explode over the past 50 years, and any year-to-year decline won’t make a significant dent in their numbers.
This year, the 2018 midwinter survey of whitefronted geese — specklebellies to most Texas waterfowlers — indicated a 48 percent increase from 2017 numbers, and that indexes had an annual increase of about 8 percent over the past decade.
Breeding populations of midcontinent “light” and white-fronted geese are strong, but early indications are that this has not been a banner year for nesting success. A late breakup of ice in the nesting regions this spring — in some cases, as much as three weeks later than normal — portends poor production and a dearth of young-of-year birds in goose flocks that will filter down the Central Flyway toward Texas over the coming months.
“Goose numbers are high and stable; they aren’t dropping,” Kraai said. “But there might not be many gray birds (young geese) in those flocks this year. We won’t know until they start moving south.”
It has been worse