Flores’ upset win may be good sign for Hurd
Some see red flags for ‘blue wave’ in similar District 23
CASTROVILLE — If Democrats were looking for a sign that the mythical “blue wave” would sweep Gina Ortiz Jones into Rep. Will Hurd’s seat, Republican Pete Flores’ upset victory in state Senate District 19 might have been ballotbox buzzkill.
As the party looks to take the U.S. House of Representatives, they’re eyeing districts like Hurd’s: Hillary Clinton carried the district in 2016, and Hurd won re-election that year by less than 2 percent. To that end, Tuesday’s state Senate result runs counter to Democrats’ hopes of flipping the district.
While Flores’ victory gave Republicans a boost in state government, political observers say it also could have national implications as a final barometer for November — and whether Democrats can regain control of the House.
The district that Flores won, a Democratic stronghold for 139 years, is very similar to the congressional district Hurd, a Republican, currently holds. They both cover portions of San Antonio and large swaths of West Texas, though Hurd’s district runs farther north and west toward El Paso. Fifteen of the 17 counties in SD-19 fall within Congressional District 23.
Two days after the special election, Hurd sought to harness some of Flores’ momentum in South Texas: He invited the senator-elect to a Castroville town hall Thursday morning.
“Y’all did something nobody thought y’all were going to do,” Hurd told Medina County supporters at Sammy’s Restaurant.
“There is no blue wave,” Flores added after Hurd introduced him. “It’s a red wave.”
Hurd confirmed he was watching Flores’ campaign with an eye toward his own re-election.
“It’s an example of how there’s a lot of people that identify with the things we’re trying to do,” Hurd said. “If there was such intensity by Democrats, where were they two nights ago?”
Ortiz Jones dismissed the idea that the vote would influence the November election.
“This race was manipulated from the start,” she said in a statement. “Greg Abbott called for a vote in September because he knew Republicans could not win the seat in November. All over this district, I am seeing people’s enthusiasm for new, strong leadership.”
November’s general elections will involve significantly more votes than the special election runoff. Michael Li, senior redistricting counsel for the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University, said that’s a crucial point.
“Everyone is tempted to say this is some kind of tea leaf but … there are a lot of things that are different,” Li said. “People should be careful about hot takes.”
But for Ortiz Jones and Democrats, there is also genuine cause for concern.
“I think (Gina Ortiz Jones) should be very nervous,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston and author of “Inside Texas Politics.”
Rottinghaus said Tuesday’s result is instructive for what could happen in November. The congressional district Hurd and Ortiz Jones are vying for is more conservative than SD-19 because it includes more inland and rural counties, he said. If Latino and Bexar County Democrats have lackluster turnout, Ortiz Jones won’t stand much of a chance.
“It definitely can send up some red flags for Ortiz Jones,” Rottinghaus said.
A poll conducted by the New York Times and Siena College last week showed Hurd leading Ortiz Jones by eight points. Likely voters in the district said they preferred Republicans to control the House by a margin of 49 to 45 percent.
Li said he views the race as a toss-up, and the fact that both national parties continue to spend money in the race indicates that as well.
“It will be a slog until the end,” Li said.