Houston adds 9,100 new jobs
Houston’s economy gets a job boost in February — adding 9,100 jobs for the month, 2.4 percent over February 2018 — even as other signs point to slower growth in the first months of the year.
Houston’s economy got a job boost in February even as other signs point to slower growth in the first months of the year.
Houston added 9,100 jobs during the month, according to seasonally adjusted data from the Texas Workforce Commission. That brings the metro area’s total number of jobs up 2.4 percent over February 2018.
“It’s good news, but it’s not great news,” said Patrick Jankowski, an economist and senior vice president for research of the Greater Houston Partnership. “The estimates for February suggest a booming economy, but the other data out there … don’t support that.”
It was Houston’s largest yearover-year job increase since 2015.
Manufacturing jobs added in Houston’s metro area jumped by 7.6 percent compared to the same period last year, according to the commission’s data. This was the largest gain recorded year to year in a February since 1990, the earliest year that data are available.
“(Manufacturing) has been on an upward trend for the better part of last year, and this month is most likely tied to oil and gas equipment,” said Parker Harvey, an economist at Workforce Solutions.
“That is encouraging,” he added, as it points to the continued recovery of the oil and gas industry.
Benefits from energy
But state and local employment statistics are revised to reflect data that are collected after the initial estimates. Economists believe the most recent numbers will be edited down when more information becomes available. The jobs numbers for manufacturing might be overly optimistic. While Jankowski said the Houston economy is seeing a healthy level of manufacturing, this jump will probably be revised down, he said, as other economic indicators such as the oil and gas rig count and trade data don’t suggest such a big boom.
Both the state’s and Houston’s economy have benefited from the energy sector’s rebound. But the local economy has shown signs of slowing in the first few months of 2019. The Houston business-cycle index, prepared by the Dallas Federal Reserve, slowed at the start of the year as businesses likely responded to the December plunge in oil prices and signs of economic headwinds in the global economy, experts said, as well as trade uncertainty and a tight labor market.
An employment forecast for Texas by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas suggests jobs will grow 1.5 percent this year.
“While the forecast has improved since January, it still suggests weaker job growth this year than in 2018,” said Keith Phillips, a senior economist at the Dallas Fed, in a statement.
Jankowski said he still thinks the Houston economy is much better off than a few years ago, and if there are signs of slowing down, the signals are marginal and a result of the economy finding a sustainable growth rate after rapid expansion.
“That’s what we’re doing now is finding a pace to maintain in the long run,” he said.
Continuing trajectory
The state economy added 17,700 positions over the month, according to the Texas Workforce Commission, and Texas’ unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8 percent in February, according to the Labor Department, which is close to its historic low.
Houston’s unemployment rate was 4.2 percent in February, while the national rate was 3.8 percent. Economists said there was little to be concerned about, as Houston appears to be following national trends.
About 12.6 million people are employed in the state, with 3.1 million in Houston. State employment was up 2.2 percent year-over-year in February, the Labor Department said.
In February, Texas’ education and health industry saw a slight decrease in seasonally adjusted jobs compared to January, but employment in the industry was up over the year. Private annual employment in Texas grew 2.5 percent in February and has held above 2 percent since October 2017.
“Texas continues a growth trajectory resulting in high-paying jobs in essential industries like manufacturing, professional services and financial activities,” Julian Alvarez, the Texas Workforce Commissioner representing labor, said in a statement.
West Texas cities again recorded record low unemployment rates as the shale boom in the Permian Basin drives demand for labor. Midland’s metro area recorded February’s lowest unemployment rate among Texas cities, a nonseasonally adjusted rate of 2.2 percent. Odessa, just outside of Midland, had the second-lowest rate in the state.