EPA to change way it calculates health risks
Shift would predict fewer deaths in bid to justify rollback
WASHINGTON — The Environmental Protection Agency plans to change the way it calculates the future health risks of air pollution, a shift that would predict thousands of fewer deaths and would help justify the planned rollback of a key climate change measure, according to five people with knowledge of the agency’s plans.
The proposed change would dramatically reduce the 1,400 additional premature deaths per year that the EPA had initially forecast as a result of eliminating the old climate change regulation — the Clean Power Plan, which was former President Barack Obama’s signature climate change measure. It also would make it easier for the administration to defend its replacement, known as the Affordable Clean Energy rule.
It has been a constant struggle for the EPA to demonstrate, as it is normally expected to do, that society will see more benefits than costs from major regulatory changes. This is one of many examples of the Trump administration downgrading the estimates of environmental harm from pollution in regulations.
The new modeling method, which experts said has never been peer-reviewed and is not scientifically sound, would most likely be used by the Trump administration to defend further rollbacks of air pollution rules if it is formally adopted.
But the proposed change is unusual because it relies on unfounded medical assumptions and discards more than a decade of peerreviewed EPA methods for understanding the health hazards linked to the fine particulate matter produced by burning fossil fuels.
Fine particulate matter — the tiny, deadly particles that can penetrate deep into the lungs and enter the bloodstream — is linked to heart attacks, strokes and respiratory disease.
The five people familiar with the plan, who are all current or former EPA officials, said the new modeling method would be used in the agency’s analysis of the final version of the ACE rule, which is expected to be made public in June. William L. Wehrum, the EPA air quality chief, acknowledged in an interview that the new method would be included in the agency’s final analysis of the rule, though aides later said the matter had not been settled.
The new methodology would assume there is little or no health benefit to making the air any cleaner than what the law requires. On paper, that would translate into far fewer premature deaths from air pollution, even if it increased.
The problem is, scientists say, in the real world there are no safe levels of fine particulate pollution in the air.
“Particulate matter is extremely harmful, and it leads to a large number of premature deaths,” said Richard L. Revesz, an expert in environmental law at New York University. He called the expected change a “monumental departure” from the approach both Republican and Democratic EPA leaders have used over the past several decades.
The Obama administration had sought to reduce planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Power Plan by pushing utilities to switch away from coal.
The Trump administration has moved to repeal the Obama-era plan and replace it with the ACE rule, which would slightly improve the efficiency of coal plants. It would also allow older coal plants to remain in operation longer and result in an increase of particulate matter.
Particulate matter comes in various sizes. The greatest health risk comes from what is known as PM 2.5, the range of fine particles that are less than 2.5 microns in diameter.
The EPA has set the safety threshold for PM 2.5 at a yearly average of 12 micrograms per cubic meter. While individual days vary, with some higher, an annual average at or below that level, known as the particulate matter standard, is considered safe.
Wehrum acknowledged that not taking into consideration health effects below the particulate matter standard would reduce the 1,400 premature deaths the agency had initially predicted as a result of the measure.
He said the analyses the agency is conducting “illuminate the issue” of particulate matter.
“This isn’t just something I’m cooking up here in my fifth-floor office in Washington,” Wehrum said.