ACES ON BRIDGE
The Monty Hall problem arose on “Let’s Make a Deal.” The contestant was presented with three doors; behind one was a car, and behind the other two were goats. The contestant selected a door, then the quizmaster opened a different door to reveal a goat. Now should the contestant change his selection to the third door or stick with his original choice? Interestingly, the contestant doubles his odds by switching his choice. He’d turn his car into a goat only if he had correctly selected the car with his first pick — a 1-in-3 chance. But he would win the car if he had originally picked either of the two goats — a 2-in-3 chance. The reason comes back to Restricted Choice; in each of the latter two cases, the host had only one goat left to reveal. However, if the first pick was the car, the host had a choice of goats to show you. The biggest caveat for Restricted Choice comes when a player contributes a significant honor or spot-card where that play is not forced. Consider today’s slam, where when declarer cashes the heart king, he sees the 10 fall from East. The singleton 10 might seem more likely than J-10 doubleton, since we must reduce the chance of the latter by half — because East might have followed with the jack from that holding. That is true, but East wasn’t forced to play the 10 from J-10-7, his actual holding in the diagram. Maybe only an expert would be capable of that falsecard, but that is a completely different issue.
ANSWER: Fourth suit forcing sets up a game force. There is no need to jump to three hearts to show the sixth heart. That call should be reserved for a better suit than this. Simply bid two hearts here; this doesn’t guarantee a sixth heart, but it leaves more space for your partner to describe why he forced to game.