Red or blue — in Houston, it’s green
‘This is where action is’ for Democratic presidential hopefuls
No Democratic candidate for president has won Texas in over 40 years, and yet the flow of Democratic contenders coming through the state, and Houston specifically, has been unusually strong in 2019.
Just since March, 14 of the Democrats running for the White House have already appeared at 26 different events in Houston. And that’s before 10 of the top contenders return on Friday afternoon to take part in a twohour presidential campaign forum organized by the National Education Association.
“This is where the action is,” said DJ Ybarra, executive director of the Harris County Democratic Party. “This is where you need to be.”
For sure, Texas presidential primary elections loom large on March 3, especially as Democratic strength at the ballot box has grown in Harris County. But another reason is money.
In each of the last four election cycles, Democrats have received increasing amounts of donations from the Houston area, according to data tracked by the Center for Responsive Politics. In 2012, Hous
ton-area donors gave $14 million to Democrats. In 2016, it jumped to $19 million. And in 2018, it shot up to $27 million.
Still, more money from Houston is going to Republicans: $37 million in 2018. But the gap between Democrats and Republicans is shrinking. Four years ago, Republicans collected over $25 million more from Houston donors than Democrats. Last year, that gap was just under $10 million.
Overall, the Democrat share of federal campaign donations from Houston has grown from just 23 percent in 2012 to 42 percent last year.
Texas has long had a reputation as an ATM for Democratic presidential candidates who then use that money in other states, said Manny Garcia, the executive director of the Texas Democratic Party. But now, candidates who make their way to the Bayou City are having to multi-task like never before: raising money and courting votes in what has been transformed from a red county to bright blue in just a decade.
The Houston hustle
The new Houston two-step of presidential campaigning was on full display on Saturday as El Paso Democrat Beto O’Rourke dripped sweat at an outdoor protest in front of a shelter in East Houston that houses children who have crossed the border. Joined by about 150 protesters, O’Rourke called out the private, non-profit shelter for making hundreds of millions of dollars by detaining children on behalf of the federal government.
“Let us spare no expense in reuniting every single family that has been separated in the United States,” O’Rourke told the crowd.
A few hours later, O’Rourke was cleaned up, had tossed on a sport coat and was making a fundraising pitch at a home not far from River Oaks.
“If you can give just a little bit more than you’ve already given, I promise you, I will make the most of it,” O’Rourke told the crowd there.
It was a similar scene a month earlier when former Vice President Joe Biden was in Houston meeting with rank-and-file teachers at an IBEW union hall in northwest Houston. Thirty minutes later, Biden, who is leading the field in early polls, was at a 26,000-square foot mansion with a 14-car subterranean garage in River Oaks making his pitch to “people with significant wealth like we have here.”
“There’s a lot at stake here in this election,” Biden told more than 80 people at the fundraiser hosted by attorney James Eddie Williams and his wife, Sheridan.
In the first quarter of the year, $3.6 million in contributions to Democratic presidential contenders came from Texas, with almost $900,000 of that from Houstonarea donors. That doesn’t count any money for Biden, who did not enter the race for the White House until the second quarter. O’Rourke had been on the trail for just three weeks.
O’Rourke had raised by far the most out of Houston through March, with about $440,000. But Julián Castro, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg had all raised at least $20,000 in the first three months of 2019 from donors who listed a Houston address.
Super Tuesday looms
The surge in fundraising in Houston mirrors what has happened at the ballot box. In 2004, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry lost Harris County by more than 100,000 votes. Four years later, Barack Obama won Houston by just over 19,000 votes. Even though she lost the state, Hillary Clinton won Harris County by 161,000 votes in 2016. Last year, in his U.S. Senate race, O’Rourke won Harris County by over 200,000 votes.
The dramatic shift of Harris County from a red county to blue is a major reason some politicians and pollsters are wondering if Texas is close to turning blue. According to a Quinnipiac University survey of Texas in early June, President Donald Trump trailed Biden by four percentage points. The president had 44 percent of the vote compared to Biden's 48 percent.
Texas also plays a big role in the Democratic primaries. After the traditional first four states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina) vote in February 2020, Texas will be next up along with 14 other states voting on Super Tuesday March 3. If those first four states haven’t decided the race, Texas and its haul of delegates will put those who have been cultivating Harris County votes in a prime position.
That explains why Harris, O’Rourke, Sanders and Biden have all had public rallies in Houston. And on Friday, Warren is set to hold a town hall meeting at the University of Houston where she graduated in 1970.
Ybarra said the changes in Houston and Harris County have been years in the making. He said years of on-the-ground organizing, voter registration and party training are starting to pay off.
“People are now recognizing this is where they need to go,” Ybarra said.