Russell deal was costly, but will it pay off ?
SAN FRANCISCO — “Lightyears,” a two-word noun pulled from a quote, has become as synonymous with the Warriors as “Strength in Numbers,” 30-footers and ball movement.
By this point, many Golden State fans might not remember majority owner Joe Lacob’s 2016 sound bite — “We’re light-years ahead of probably every other team” — that spawned the catchphrase. Few have forgotten, however, what “light-years” represents: unrivaled success rooted in a higher-level approach.
At first glance, the Warriors’ sign-and-trade deal Sunday with Brooklyn that landed them guard D’Angelo Russell was yet another “light-years” moment. Golden State general manager Bob Myers had managed without any salarycap space to acquire one of the most coveted free agents on the market. Instead of letting Kevin Durant leave for nothing, the Warriors orchestrated a complex, stunning move in a bid to keep the franchise relevant.
But take a deeper look at the steep price Golden State paid to get Russell, and it’s easy to see why some analysts have called this an act of desperation. The team losing Durant — arguably the best player in the world when healthy — traded a first-round pick to the Nets as part of the deal.
To accommodate Russell’s four-year, $117 maximum contract, the Warriors shipped Andre Iguodala and a lightly protected 2024 first-round pick to the Grizzlies. Then there is the fact that, even in the wake of the Iguodala deal, the sign-and-trade with Brooklyn severely limited Golden State’s spending power.
No team that acquires a player through a sign-and-trade can exceed a total payroll just shy of $139 million. After Sunday’s chaos, the Warriors had roughly $10 million to pay six more players. That spelled the end of Golden State’s time with DeMarcus Cousins, Quinn Cook, Shaun Livingston and Jordan Bell.
For the Russell deal to be worth it, he must outperform what the Warriors might have gotten from Iguodala, two firstround picks and all the free agents they suddenly couldn’t resign. That is a massive gamble. But with no other way for Golden State to add a player of Russell’s caliber, it felt this was a move it had to make.
The Warriors could have let Durant leave for nothing, kept Iguodala, and rounded out the roster with the $5.7 million taxpayer mid-level exception and minimum contracts, but they’d have few promising young players and still face a massive luxury tax. Freeing up salary-cap space by not offering the injured Klay Thompson a five-year, $190 million max contract was not an option.
The Warriors also could have tried to parlay Durant’s departure into a trade exception big enough to accommodate almost any contract in the league. Coupled with the $17 million trade exception Golden State got in the Iguodala deal, that might have provided Golden State a significant asset.
But the Warriors didn’t seriously consider this approach because trade exceptions often bring back only players past their prime, a league source told The Chronicle. They needed a dynamic playmaker who could help replace the production of Thompson, who will miss at least the first couple of months of next season with an ACL injury.
In a post-Durant world filled with less-than-ideal options, Golden State knew that a signand-trade for Russell was perhaps its only way to stay competitive.
Russell’s offense subsists almost entirely on pick-and-rolls. Only Kemba Walker was involved in more pick-and-rolls than Russell last season, which is a stark contrast from Kerr’s motion offense. Russell’s 920 pick-androlls last season were only 75 fewer than the Warriors’ entire offense.
His 6.4 minutes per game with the ball in his hands were 25 percent more than the top Golden State player (Stephen Curry, 4.8), which raises an important question: Can Russell get used to playing off the ball? Because after making five straight Finals with Curry as their point guard, the Warriors are unlikely to ask Curry to fundamentally change how he plays.
It helps that Russell is an elite spot-up shooter. Last season, he made 39.4 percent of his catchand-shoot 3-pointers.
Perhaps the bigger concern is defensively. With Thompson injured and Iguodala gone, the Warriors don’t have any wing defenders they can trust to stop the league’s best scorers one-onone. Russell’s arrival makes it tougher for Golden State to hide Curry — a middling defender, at best — on subpar shooters.
At 6-5 with a 6-10 wingspan, Russell has the potential to be better defensively than he showed with the Lakers and Nets. But to improve, he’ll need to make key changes, defending with more focus and tenacity. Regardless, Thompson might have to become a full-time small forward when he returns.
Numerous teams need point guards. The Warriors are eligible to trade Russell on Dec. 15, roughly around the front end of Thompson’s projected five- to seven-month recovery from the knee injury.
Golden State took a calculated risk in giving up so much to land Russell, but risks are what earned it the “light-years” label in the first place.