Reinforcements are known and a mystery
Correa, Diaz should rejoin roster soon; pitching help requires deal this month
CLEVELAND — The Astros will arrive at Arlington’s Globe Life Park on Thursday afternoon with almost foolproof postseason prognostications. FanGraphs gives the club a 99.7 percent chance of making the playoffs and 99.2 percent odds to win the American League West for a third straight season.
No other American League team has divisionwinning chances eclipsing 90 percent. Houston, despite an injury inundation and two terrible weeks in June, holds a 7½-game lead over the Oakland Athletics and nine-game advantage over the Texas Rangers.
The Astros begin the second half of the regular season with 14 consecutive games against divisional opponents. Seven are against the A’s or Rangers. A torrid stretch could put the race out of reach.
“(The stretch) is very important,” said Astros outfielder Michael Brantley. “Right out of the gate, it’s a division rivalry. Texas has been playing great baseball. We have to come in ready to go, look fresh and have a great series.
“We’re going to have to play good baseball all the way through, and we knew that going in. They’re good teams, and we have to make sure we take care of our responsibilities.”
The team is comfortable with its current standing
but not content to capture only another division crown. Homefield advantage throughout the playoffs is the goal. In the AL, the New York Yankees lead the Astros in that race by one game. Catching them will require the return of two missed offensive pieces and perhaps some activity before the trade deadline.
“I’d like to see us add,” pitcher Gerrit Cole said. “I’d like to see us add some good pieces, some impact pieces. I think with the people that we’re competing against — not just in our division; we’re looking for home-field advantage against the Yankees and the Red Sox and ultimately against the best team in the National League as well — I think those things weigh heavily on some of the outcomes of a series. It certainly makes things more challenging when you have to go on the road.”
The second half is set up for change. While shortstop Carlos Correa and utilityman Aledmys Diaz will return soon, no such internal help is apparent to address a thinning rotation. That must be rectified during the next 20 days. The elimination of an August trade deadline places all importance on July 31.
Cole, Justin Verlander and Wade Miley are a fine front to the starting rotation. They own three of the nine lowest ERAs among qualified American League starters.
A fourth starter is required for the postseason. A solid fifth must emerge to finish the regular season without overworking the bullpen. Brad Peacock, who threw through a sore shoulder throughout June, began a rehab assignment with Class AA Corpus Christi on Wednesday. Barring a setback, his return is imminent.
Houston has no answer for a fifth starter. Jose Urquidy was optioned to Class AAA Round Rock after two tries. Corbin Martin’s Tommy John surgery scuttled any hope of his return. The unreliable, command-optional southpaw Framber Valdez seems the logical candidate to start Thursday’s second-half opener against the Rangers.
The Astros will scour the open market for a pitcher. General manager Jeff Luhnow has not hidden that fact. Nor has he intimated anything will come early in the month. Teams that still cling to hope in division races may not decide to make players available in trades until the date draws closer.
At present, as few as eight teams might be considered sellers. Of the remaining 22, 17 have at least .500 records, four are either one or two games under, and the Reds, though five games under, are only 4½ games out of the NL Central lead.
One of Luhnow’s most recent prized acquisitions would like another addition.
“We are in a position to afford an impact player,” Cole said. “Whether that be a starter, reliever or a position player — I’ll leave the technical stuff up to Jeff and those guys and how they want to do it. But I anticipate them making a strong move.”
A streaky, sometimes topheavy offense will require continuity that injuries made impossible during the first half. Jose Altuve missed 34 games with right leg ailments. George Springer strained his hamstring and missed 27.
Still, the Astros mustered the majors’ second-highest team OPS. Their 5.09 runs per game ranked 10th, though. Their lineup requires more length.
Since May 26, Houston has not had the services of either Diaz or Correa, who was injured in a mysterious May massage accident. Both players are in West Palm Beach, Fla., finishing the final stages of their rehabilitation.
Correa will likely embark on a minor league rehab assignment before Diaz, who has combated a strained left hamstring for more than two months. A prolonged stint in the minor leagues is expected for both, so a return on this upcoming eight-game road trip may be far-fetched.
Adding both can elongate a lineup currently forced to feature either an underperforming Tyler White or a defensively challenged Myles Straw at a shortstop position he is still learning to master.
“We’ve had to redirect our style with so many injuries for a few weeks, but I thought as a club we responded well to those challenges,” Cole said.
“I think we’re poised to get a consistent lineup running out for at least the last 2½ months. We’ve done really well throughout the first half, and we’re looking to take what we’ve learned here and the players that we’re going to get back and peak at the right time at the end of the season.”