Acquiring Paul gives OKC more options

OKLAHOMA CITY — It’s not as simple as swapping point guards, or as easy as getting comfortable with Chris Paul.

If the last week in the NBA proved anything, it’s that circumstances change quickly and shockingly. Arguably none of the Thunder’s three trades in the past week were as stunning as the swap of guard Russell Westbrook for Rockets guard Chris Paul and two first-round picks.

Paul’s future in Oklahoma City is undetermined, but the Westbrook-Paul trade gave the Thunder another avenue to competitiveness or continued asset collection.

Pivoting into semi-competitiveness with Paul, 34, after trading Westbrook, 30, isn’t prudent, particularly with Paul’s injury history and no Paul George or Jerami Grant on the Thunder roster. It’s why Paul is reportedly going to be traded sooner rather than later.

A combination of Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams and Dennis Schroder would make for a feisty squad in the Western Conference, but it would be a rehash of the futility the Thunder showed the past three seasons post-Kevin Durant. The Western Conference is even deeper after the Thunder’s two All-Stars were traded to rivals — Westbrook to the Rockets, George to the L.A. Clippers.

Another trade possible

When a Paul trade will happen is as unpredictable as the Thunder’s past seven days. Miami has been reported as a potential destination for the nine-time All-Star, but there are complications. Because Miami acquired Jimmy Butler in a sign-and-trade with Philadelphia, the Heat are hard-capped at $138.9 million for the rest of the season, meaning they have to stay at or below that number until next summer.

Acquiring Paul wouldn’t accomplish that unless Miami sent out big salaries (Goran Dragic’s $19.2 million expiring deal) as well; the Heat are at around $138 million in salary. The Thunder have worked diligently to shed salary, avoiding taking back big money beyond expiring one-year deals (Gallinari), young players (Gilgeous-Alexander) or draft picks. It’s why OKC had reported interest in Miami’s Tyler Herro, Justise Winslow and Bam Adebayo.

With Paul, the Thunder are around $136.8 million in salary, $4.2 million over the luxury tax line and on the hook for about $10.5 million in luxury tax. Paul is slightly more expensive than Westbrook, but the Thunder are essentially a move away from getting under the tax.

The big benefit in accumulating so many picks over the past week is it offers the Thunder options. If Paul proves difficult to move without taking one or multiple bad salaries, the Thunder could send a trade partner one of its eight first-round picks acquired since last week. Ideally, the Thunder would like to receive more draft capital in return for Paul, but they have bought some wiggle room on dealing Paul because of the loosely protected future first-round picks it received from the Rockets — a coup considering Westbrook’s contract is a year longer than Paul’s.

What is Donovan’s stake?

Trading for Paul also bought the Thunder time. After George was traded, Westbrook coming back to the Thunder would have been awkward, particularly with his heir apparent (Gilgeous-Alexander) on the roster. The Thunder didn’t want unhappy players in the locker room, so they found the best possible trades in collaboration with George and Westbrook.

With Paul, the Thunder would compete. OKC might even be better than a Westbrook team without George. Compared to Westbrook, Paul is a better shooter (46.9 percent overall, 37 percent from 3 career to 43.4 and 30.8 for Westbrook), and a better defender despite less height.

Paul could be a mentor, but Gilgeous-Alexander, 20, is good enough for the Thunder to prioritize his development.

Unmentioned in all of the movement has been Billy Donovan. Entering his fifth year as Thunder coach, there’s doubt Donovan commands the respect of veteran players. Donovan struggled balancing Carmelo Anthony, a friend of Paul’s, and now gets an intense competitor with conviction about how the game should be played and how offense should run. Would he mesh with Donovan or overpower him?

Those questions might not matter. Paul could be traded in the impending days, weeks or months. And the rebuild isn’t official until that happens.