Texas GOP sprints into 2020 with $18M haul
Abbott, Patrick scrambling for cash as Dems eye House
AUSTIN — The operator’s request was urgent: Press star zero to donate what you can to “keep Texas red” — even $5 helps.
“Don’t let Governor Abbott down when he needs us,” she told listeners.
The telephone town hall in late June — a fundraising plea featuring GOP Gov. Greg Abbott answering questions — marked the start of an all-out scramble for cash as Republicans face their most daunting election cycle in decades, one that will have far-reaching implications for who gets to redraw the state’s political districts in 2021.
State lawmakers cannot raise campaign money while the Legislature is in session, but when that blackout lifted in mid-June, the Republicans sprinted to raise an eyepopping $17.8 million before the end of the month, campaign finance records released last week show.
Further signaling they expect competitive races in 2020, GOP leaders have already shelled out hundreds of thousands of dollars on polling that could help downballot candidates this year, far eclipsing what they’ve spent in the past.
Nowhere is the pressure higher than in 14 Texas House races largely around Houston and Dallas where rapidly shifting demographics are putting into play districts that were once comfortably Republican. Democrats need to flip nine seats to claim control of the Texas House for the first time since 2002.
“Listen, there is way too much at stake
for us to sit around,” Abbott said during the tele-town hall. “Every hand is needed on deck right now if we are going to be prepared for the attempts by the Democrats to try to win Texas this coming election year and try to impose their brand of socialism.”
Looming over the next election is redistricting. Texas stands to gain three more congressional seats after the 2020 census. The next Legislature will be in charge of drawing the state’s new congressional and state district maps that will endure through 2030.
If successful, Democrats would have a seat at the table after being shut out when Republicans drew maps that entrenched their majorities at the state and federal level in 2011.
“Republicans are going to need every cent they can get. They know Democrats are poised to win the Texas House,” said Manny Garcia, executive director of the Texas Democratic Party.
What the Democratic Party doesn’t have, however, are statewide elected leaders such as Abbott who can rake in huge fundraising hauls to help the others. Democrats in the House raised $1.14 million over the two weeks at the end of June. Senate Democrats raised $192,000.
Abbott raised $12 million during the short fundraising period, amounting to nearly $1 million a day. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, a Republican who controls the Senate, raised $3 million in the same two-week period. Neither faces re-election until 2022.
Abbott “can effectively play kingmaker with this money,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston. “He can donate to people who he thinks are better positioned to help him, donate to any organizations that can be of aid to the party or him in the future.”
An influx of cash from Abbott, however, isn’t always a winning ticket. Though Abbott’s campaign funneled hundreds of thousands of dollars to endangered Republicans in the final stretch of the 2018 election, the party still lost 12 seats in the state House and two in the state Senate.
Democrats lost the U.S. Senate race that year, but the margin was less than 3 percent, a steep decline from President Donald Trump’s 9 percent winning margin in 2016.
Plenty of seats to target
Perhaps no Texas politicians feel the pressure more than eight Republican representatives who barely survived their re-elections in 2018, winning by less than 5 percentage points. They include Rep. Angie Chen Button, an immigrant who worked at Texas Instruments for more than 30 years, and Rep. Matt Shaheen, a technology consultant who is a member of the conservative Texas House Freedom Caucus. Rep. Jonathan Stickland, one of the House’s most conservative members, decided not to run for reelection. All hail from the Dallas area.
Six Democrats are also on the bubble, including Erin Zwiener, a three-time “Jeopardy” winner from outside of Austin who in her first bid for elected office edged out a Republican by 3.1 percentage points.
All are guaranteed targets in the next election.
In the two-week period, the eight Republicans together raised $473,000. That haul included $150,000 from House Speaker Dennis Bonnen, R-Angleton, who funded early polling for them. The six vulnerable Democrats raised nearly $98,000.
Another 20 races are also in play, either because Republicans want to win old seats back or because Democrats hope they can make headway in districts where Republicans won by less than 10 percentage points.
“There’s not an incumbent Democrat in Texas that will get a free pass,” said James Dickey, chairman of the Republican Party of Texas.
Many of the most vulnerable House members hail from the North Texas suburbs, including Republican Rep. Jeff Leach, a lawyer from Plano. Despite winning re-election by nearly 20 points in 2016, he held on to his seat last year by 2.3 percentage points against a stay-at-home mom who had never held public office.
In the last weeks of June, he raised more than $185,0000, mostly in large donations and almost seven times more than in the period in 2015.
Tight races, big checks
Every House Republican who survived a close race raised more money after this legislative session than they did at the same time in 2015. That includes Rep. Morgan Meyer, a Dallas lawyer who raked in more than $155,000 after the legislative session, compared with nearly $85,000 in 2015. He squeaked by in his last election by 220 votes or 0.5 percentage points ahead of a college professor who ran on reforming the state’s foster care system.
Houston Rep. Dwayne Bohac survived an even tighter race. The consultant and real estate agent who represents the area around Addicks Reservoir won by 47 votes, spurring a recount. He received about $27,000 in campaign contributions, almost $20,000 of which came in the form of polling donated by Bonnen. In 2015, Bohac raised $11,500 right after the legislative session.
In the Texas Senate, Republican Pete Flores said his race is “ghost pepper hot.”
The game warden from Pleasanton surprised Democrats by winning a special election deep in San Antonio’s Democratic territory last fall with the help of Abbott and Patrick. Although Democrats’ plan to fight him in 2020, Flores has raised next to no money in this two-week period to fuel his next election. Flores said his accomplishments during the session speak for themselves. Still, the campaign has set a goal of bringing in $1 million to $2 million.
Flores said he hates fundraising, but expects “very good funding and backing from across the state.”
During and immediately after this legislative session, top Republicans spent more on polling than they had in the past three legislative sessions combined.
Bonnen gifted nearly $20,000 in polling research to nearly everyone in the 83-member House Republican Caucus. Bonnen has shoveled more than $258,000 into polls so far this year. Abbott spent about $153,000, and Patrick spent nearly $12,000.
During the same time two years ago, Abbott and Patrick spent a total of $19,000 altogether on polling, and then-House Speaker Joe Straus reported no polling expenses. Top Republicans spent just $5,200 on polling in 2015 and about $52,000 in 2013 over the same period.
Bonnen this year launched a $3 million fund called Texas Leads PAC to buoy the re-election campaigns of Republican House members. Bonnen himself refused to accept almost any campaign contributions, saying through his spokesman that he did not feel compelled to stay in Austin to raise campaign money after the Legislature adjourned in May.
On Abbott’s shoulders
Much of the pressure this election cycle will likely be on Abbott, who is now the standardbearer of the Republican Party in Texas. Republicans will look to him to support and protect GOP candidates, particularly in the House. He has more than $26 million in the bank.
Any Democratic sweep of the Legislature would mean Abbott would have to work with two parties to pass his priorities, a major shift from the last six years he’s been in office with total GOP control — and the last 17 years Republicans have enjoyed a trifecta of running the governor’s office and both legislative chambers.
Democrats’ fundraising among state lawmakers trailed behind that of Republicans. House and Senate Democrats raised $1.3 million to Republicans’ $2.8 million.