Saber-rattling and dead ends: Our Iran policy is a mess

Before we rush off to confront Iran, it’s worth taking stock of the situation in the Persian Gulf.

First, how did we get to the point where war with Iran is even on the menu? Second, what course of action best serves U.S. interests?

The first answer is straightforward. President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the six-nation nuclear deal with Iran last year and imposed extraterritorial sanctions. These threaten U.S. reprisal against any company or country that imports oil from Iran.

Trump’s “maximum pressure” clampdown was a major strategic blunder. U.S. sanctions have encouraged Iran to launch its “maximum response,” which involves causing so much trouble in the region — and for the oil-importing world — that the U.S. is being forced to react again and again.

The attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure appear to be Iran’s latest response to the U.S. clampdown. We now face the choice of re-opening negotiations with Iran, or further intensifying hostilities by, perhaps, launching cyberattacks, slapping sanctions on another Iranian export – pistachios? carpets? – or, bombing Iran, which would be an act of war.

Unsurprisingly, Tehran already considers the complete halt to oil exports, its main source of income, as economic warfare. Iranian leaders have said for decades that if Iran is prevented from exporting oil, it will ensure neighboring countries undergo the same punishment.

So, Iran’s behavior — while reckless and illegal — was predictable.

But Trump went further. He strengthened the hand of Iran’s hardliners by declaring that the U.S. is unwilling to go to war. Iranian hardliners seem to have gambled that the most they’ll endure is a small strike, maybe a cyberattack.

So, Trump’s Iran policy has no carrot and no stick. And Iran is acting accordingly. It has seized ships in the Gulf and appears to be behind recent tanker sabotage near the Strait of Hormuz. Emerging evidence suggests Iran may have had a direct role in the attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure.

Tehran’s endgame is to restart oil exports by either bringing Washington back to the negotiating table, or forcing the other parties to the nuclear agreement – Great Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China – to find a workaround.

A sideshow to the U.S.-Iran showdown is taking place in Yemen, the poorest country in the Middle East.

There, U.S.-allied Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates intervened in a civil war that has ground to a bloody stalemate. Bombing has killed thousands of civilians, triggered a famine, and drawn Iran into the conflict. The campaign has failed to dislodge rebel Houthi fighters from the Yemeni capital, or even prevent them from launching drone and rocket attacks on Saudi Arabia. Where are U.S. interests in all of this? Vital American interests start with preventing or deterring attacks on the United States and its allies, particularly with nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. After that, we are interested in uninterrupted exports of Middle Eastern oil, deterring terrorism, and preventing hostile countries from getting nuclear, chemical or biological weapons.

So, if we want to dissuade Iran from getting nuclear weapons, or deter attacks on U.S. bases in the Gulf or on friendly countries like Saudi Arabia, or if we want to keep Gulf oil flowing to world markets, we’d better develop a strategic framework.

Thus far, the Trump administration’s knee-jerk reactions to events in the Gulf are more likely to undermine U.S. interests — and perhaps send us to war — than protect them.

We need to be forceful in the Gulf, a region of huge strategic importance. But we also need to pursue a strategy based around our national interests. That starts with understanding that all players in this conflict have legitimate interests and grievances, including Iran and the Houthis.

When America or its friends make life intolerable for them, they will demonstrate that they can make life intolerable for us.

A more thoughtful strategy, involving diplomats, is the best way to sort this one out. Sooner or later, America will be talking to Iran again.