Castro seeks campaign spark
When he takes the stage tonight in Ohio alongside 11 rivals, Julián Castro will be seeking a spark from what could be his final presidential debate.
Castro is among several contenders for the 2020 Democratic nomination who are at risk of falling short of the threshold for participating in the next nationally televised debate, on Nov. 20 in Georgia. Candidates must register at least 3 percent support in four polls approved by the Democratic National Committee.
In the same boat as Castro are
former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke of El Paso, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii.
Castro and other participants in tonight’s debate also risk being marginalized by a growing focus on a three-person contest between former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders waged on the new political terrain of impeachment and foreign policy.
Castro, a former mayor of San Antonio and U.S. secretary of housing and urban development, has credibility among Democrats on the impeachment front, having been the first in the field to call for formal proceedings against President Donald Trump after the release of special counsel Robert Mueller’s report.
It remains to be seen what tone Castro will adopt tonight on-stage at Otterbein University near Columbus, Ohio. In the most recent debate — in Houston in September — Castro took aim at Biden. During an exchange over health care, he asked the 76-year-old candidate whether he’d forgotten a statement he’d made moments earlier, a remark viewed as a knock on Biden’s age. Some criticized it as a low blow.
“His strategy is to be himself, and that has always been a big part of this campaign,” said Jennifer Fiore, a senior adviser to Castro.
Lately, Castro has been traveling widely to spotlight vulnerable populations — asylum seekers marooned in northern Mexico, a homeless encampment in Oakland, Calif. Last week, he outlined a proposal to revamp the foster care system.
Castro enjoyed a measure of redemption over the weekend when he was portrayed in a “Saturday Night Live” skit by Lin-Manuel Miranda, creator of the hit musical
“Hamilton.” Two weeks earlier, the show had been pilloried for omitting Castro from a comic routine about the 2020 Democratic candidates.
“I’m young, I’m diverse, I’m ‘Latinobama.’ Let’s get that hashtag going,” Miranda said.
Like most others in the Democratic field, Castro hasn’t moved much in the polls of late; he was stuck at 1 percent in several national surveys last week.
He has pinned some of his hopes on Nevada, whose Democratic caucuses, to be held Feb. 22, are the third nominating contest in the party’s 2020 primary season. Castro has traveled to Nevada often, and last week he dispatched his brother, U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro, to Las Vegas.
Going into tonight’s debate, Castro knows his days on the main stage could be numbered. He also knows that winning the No. 2 slot on the Democratic ticket is a possibility, and that regardless of the fate of his presidential bid, he’ll be in demand on the campaign trail next year in states with sizable Latino populations.
Albert Morales, Washington-based senior political director of the polling firm Latino Decisions, said Castro would be wise to focus his presidential hopes on states with large Latino populations, including Florida and Arizona. And in speaking to Latinos, Castro should stress how his policies would improve their lives, Morales said.
But Morales said Castro and other Democratic contenders could be blocked from breaking out the way Barack Obama did in 2008 because Democratic voters, determined to unseat Trump at all costs, may be hesitant to take a chance on a new face.
Morales noted that Castro started his campaign with little in the way of a national political base.
“Who can remember last month’s labor secretary, or who was HUD secretary? It’s not a position that puts you out there front and center,” he said.
“We’re always longing for that next Latino leader. Who is he, or she, going to be? Here you have Julián … he’s the package. But in a time when fundraising is still fundamental, he just hasn’t been able to attract that massive support of online money,” Morales said.
The Democratic National Committee’s debate rules haven’t helped, Morales said.
“We are focused on this fundraising threshold and this polling threshold that is not fair to someone like Julian because, let’s face it, most of the mainstream polls do a poor job of sampling the Hispanic electorate,” he said.
Castro’s campaign has been out front in the white paper competition, with bold proposals that include decriminalizing border crossings.
Given all that has happened since September’s debate — the Ukraine scandal, chaos in Syria, an impeachment inquiry in the Democratic-controlled U.S. House — security and foreign policy could crowd out domestic issues such as those that Castro stresses.
“I think that candidates will have to prove their mettle on a whole new set of complicated and challenging issues that are now front-ofmind but weren’t at the time of the last debate,” said Simon Rosenberg, founder of the New Democratic Network and the New Policy Institute, a liberal think tank in Washington D.C.
Rosenberg said Biden needs to be prepared for attacks from his rivals, such as the one Castro launched during the Houston debate.
“If Joe Biden’s argument is that he is the best person to beat Trump, he’s got to demonstrate that in how he handles adversity and the attacks he’s getting from Trump and others now,” he said. “I don’t think he and his campaign have been as agile in responding to some of the attacks as I think many Democrats would want.”