Is nationalism peaking in Europe? Signs point toward yes

Over the past decade, citizens have watched in shock at the metastasis of nationalistic, xenophobic, populist, antiimmigrant postures all over the West. Millions of column inches have dedicated analyses, opinions and dissections of this rightward trend. Yet, if you put your ears to the ground and listen carefully, you’ll hear something new. The noise you’re picking up is the sound of shifting ground.

The rightward groundswell did not start in the United States — and neither will its weakening. If you want to know what might be happening in the United States, look first beyond America’s borders.

Over the past decade, in Europe, rightwing populist movements such as the National Rally in France, the League in Italy, the Party for Freedom in the Netherlands, and the UK’s Brexit-loving Independence Party all pre-dated Donald Trump’s election. So did the expanding extremism of Viktor Orbán in Hungary, Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey, and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu.

The United States was not the first rightwing nationalist domino to fall. But, with Donald Trump’s election, it was surely the biggest.

So, check out what’s happening across the ocean for a hint of what might happen next here. Significant signs that the pendulum is swinging away from the rightist extremes have been accelerating. Witness the sidelining of anti-immigrant leader Matteo Salvini in Italy; Ekrem İmamoğlu’s defeat of Erdogan’s AK Party in Istanbul — not once, but twice; the British Parliament’s firm rejection of Boris Johnson’s Brexit “do or die” philosophy; the defeat of Slovakia’s right-wing populists by President Zuzana Čaputová; the massive loss of Austria’s far-right Freedom Party; and, most recently, the beginning of the end of Netanyahu’s grip over Israeli politics.

Amid the avalanche of polarization and preoccupation, it’s easy for good news to get lost in the political turmoil. But these first lights of change are significant. The question is how to solidify and nurture the trend back to more deliberative and rational politics. The first step is to understand why the xenophobic right is suddenly on the defensive in so many places.

In richer countries, discontent with the economic policies of the European Union and increasing opposition to immigration all contributed to extremist populism. Poll after poll report that these doubts haven’t changed much. Notwithstanding economic improvements since the 2008 recession, many of the reasons for simmering anger that fed right-wing politics are still there: urban-rural divides, culture wars, immigration perceived as “out of control,” financial anxiety, stagnant wages and, in America, opioid addiction.

But this doesn’t mean that citizens who voted for right-wing movements are all inherently racist or xenophobic. Unlike mainstream parties, populist nationalist parties don’t bend “pragmatically,” they dig in and are confident that doubling down on division and polarization just shores up their popularity. That bet is starting to fail. The fact that voters are moving against right-wing nationalist parties means that voters are slowly concluding that extremist rhetoric often exacerbates, rather than solves, problems. Indeed, Salvini’s anti-immigrant diatribes split his coalition with the Five Star Movement. Netanyahu’s erratic anti-Arab screeds became problematic for centerright voters. Istanbul’s citizens refused to be cowed by Erdogan’s paranoia.

Will the erosion of right-wing nationalism accelerate? The coming months will shed some light. One sign will be whether Austria’s 33-year-old prime minister, Sebastian Kurz, will again choose a far-right coalition partner or whether he will pivot to the center. Will Hungarians continue to take to the streets against Victor Orbán’s nationalist overreach? Will events in the UK weaken or even overwhelm Boris Johnson?

Of course, the real test of nationalist fatigue is America’s 2020 elections. The majority of the U.S. population supports free trade and rejects protectionist policies. American farmers, who were promised a better shake, are reeling from the effects of the trade war with China. Sixin-10 Americans say immigrants strengthen the country, and more Americans say immigration should be increased than decreased.

Something is changing and it’s happening first overseas. Will it happen here, too? Perhaps. Even if President Trump loses the election, right-wing populism won’t disappear overnight. The public will still have to combat cries of “fake news” and misinformation campaigns with nationalist undertones. But just as the election of Donald Trump legitimized and accelerated the ascension of right-wing thinking, the president’s defeat would lock in the momentum toward full reversal.